25/10/2022 Evening Reports

Germany IFO Business Climate Survey: German Economy to Contract in the Fourth Quarter…
  • According to the data announced by the CBRT, the real sector (manufacturing) confidence index increased by 0.4 points compared to the previous month and became 100.3 in October. When the diffusion indices of the survey questions that make up the index are analyzed, it is seen that while the evaluations regarding the total order amount, fixed capital investment expenditure, current finished goods stock and current total order amount in the last three months affect the index in an upward direction, the amount of export orders in the next three months, the production volume in the next three months, evaluations regarding the total employment and general trend in the next three months affected the index in a downward direction. On the other hand, when the diffusion indices of the survey questions that make up the index are examined, it is seen that while the evaluations regarding the total order amount, fixed capital investment expenditure, current finished goods stock and current total order amount in the last three months affect the index in an upward direction, the export order amount in the next three months, the production in the next three months. The volume, total employment in the next three months and evaluations of the general trend affected the index in a downward direction.
  • According to the study carried out by the German economic think tank IFO, the Business Climate Index came in at 84.3 in October, better than the expectation of 83.3. Commenting on the data, IFO Economist Klaus Wohlrabe said that they expect Germany’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to contract in the fourth quarter of the year. On the other hand, there was a decrease in the rate of companies complaining about supply chain bottlenecks in October, while one of every two companies plans to increase their prices in the next 3 months.
  • Rishi Sunak, who took over the Prime Minister’s seat from Truss in the UK, said in his press statement today that they will fight the economic crisis and will have to take tough decisions. Expressing that there is nothing wrong with Liz Truss’s desire to improve and advance economic growth, Sunak stated that some mistakes were made, and that now is the time to correct these mistakes. Now the eyes will be on the Financial Budget, which is scheduled to be announced on October 31. Some reports suggest that Sunak may delay the budget announcement. If the BoE is forced to set the policy rate without seeing the fiscal plan, it may cause it to avoid taking an aggressive hawkish stance. According to a survey conducted by Reurers, the expectation that the Bank of England (BoE) will increase the interest rate by at least 75 basis points at the Monetary Policy Committee meeting to be held on November 3 came to the fore.
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    Support Level: 0.9815 – 0.9750 – 0.9680 Resistance Level: 0.9895 – 1.0000 – 1.0050

    EUR/USD

    EUR/USD – When Pushing Up Step-by-Step 0.9895 Important…

    While the pair continues to test and push the 0.9895 resistance, it also persistently continues to push the downtrend line from 1.15. Meanwhile, the daily RSI (14) continues to test its own 55 resistance.

    If 0.9895 resistance is broken, we expect movements in favor of Euro in the parity to be triggered. At this stage, there may be a reaction to 1.0365 levels after 1.00 in the first place.

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    Support Level: 1645 – 1622 – 1603 Resistance Level: 1660 – 1680 – 1697 

    XAU/USD

    XAU/USD – R1622 Level Is An Important Support…

    On the Ounce Gold side, while the 1622 support continues to be an important support, the reactions remain weak for now. Although we see dissonances on the RSI side, it would be premature to expect the beginning of a positive move before at least 1680 resistance is overcome in the first place. In addition, when the 1680 stage is passed, we will need to see that the downtrend line from the 1878 resistance is broken for the strong continuity of the movement.

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    Support Level: 1.1185 – 1.1035 – 1.0910 Resistance Level: 1.1365 – 1.1485 – 1.1611

    GBP/USD

    GBP/USD – Price Movements Stable Despite Political Changes…

    On the sterling side, the price movement remains stable as a result of government changes, while prices are generally priced between 1.1365 and 1.1185. We will monitor the movements in this region during the day and afterwards. We will follow 1.1485 as main resistance and 1.0910 as main support.

    Support Level: 148.35 – 147.50 – 146.40 Resistance Level: 150.45 – 151.77 – 153.90

    USD/JPY

    USD/JPY What To Look For An Uptrend After Friday’s Intervention…

    After the harsh intervention on the Dollar Yen side last Friday, prices could not reach the high of that day, namely 151.77. At this point, although the candle close remained above the 14-day average and continued the trend despite the movement on Friday, the upward trend may have stopped/braked for a short time. We can talk about this pause at the point where the 150.45 resistance cannot be reached again.

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