11/08/2026 Daily Reports
- Nasdaq. US indices began the week lower after Friday’s record close. The Nasdaq Composite declined 0.3% on Monday. Nvidia dropped nearly 3% following a Financial Times report that the chipmaker is working with Apollo Global and Blackstone on a $500 billion AI infrastructure funding package. Futures were flat early Tuesday. Attention turns to July CPI on Wednesday — economists forecast a 3.4% annual increase, down from 3.5% in June — followed by PPI on Thursday, several Treasury auctions, and earnings from Applied Materials, Cisco and CoreWeave.
- DAX. Germany’s blue-chip index closed Monday up, narrowly missing a record high. Infineon, Qiagen and Siemens Energy led gainers, with Porsche Automobil, Siemens Healthineers and Brenntag among the largest decliners. The index was trading around 26,450 on Tuesday.
- Nikkei. Tokyo markets are closed Tuesday for a public holiday. On Monday the Nikkei 225 climbed 2.08% to 66,970 and the Topix rose 0.63% to 4,101, led by chip and AI-linked names including Fujikura (+7.6%), Advantest (+6.4%) and Tokyo Electron (+4.1%). Japan’s June current account surplus narrowed as higher crude imports offset strong AI-related electronics exports. USD/JPY traded near 159.
- Gold. Spot gold traded around $4,435/oz, up roughly 0.5% and near its highest level since early June, with silver at $66.47. CME FedWatch showed a 46% probability of a September Fed rate increase and 79% by December.
- Brent. Brent traded near $88 a barrel after a fourth consecutive daily gain, following Trump’s sweeping new demands on Iran that clouded prospects for a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran said Oman talks were nearing agreement but rejected direct US negotiations; Houthi forces claimed an attack on Saudi Arabia’s Jazan refinery, an ADNOC tanker was attacked in Hormuz, and US Strategic Petroleum Reserve holdings fell below 300 million barrels, the lowest since 1983.
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- The Fed’s Chill Pill: The market is pricing exactly a 50% chance of a 25bp hike in September, but investors aren’t sweating it. High-yielding FX “carry trades” are in high demand right now, with the Norwegian krone (NOK) and Latin American currencies leading the pack.
- Bond Market Brewing? While FX is calm, keep an eye on longer-dated US Treasuries. Tech giants are planning massive debt issuances—Nvidia just announced a jaw-dropping $500bn debt financing partnership for its customers! A bond market sell-off remains the biggest threat to this benign environment.
- Euro’s Summer Slumber: EUR/USD volatility has dropped to 5.8%, matching its November 2024 lows. Don’t expect much action outside the 1.1515-1.1560 range until central bankers return from their summer holidays in mid-September.
- Aussie’s Hawkish Hold: The RBA kept rates at 4.35%, but Governor Bullock isn’t mincing words—inflation risks remain skewed to the upside. While another hike isn’t strictly expected, AUD/USD is projected to climb to 0.73 by year-end.
Global markets remain focused on U.S.-Iran tensions and the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices have risen around 5% over the past two days, with Brent crude trading near $88 per barrel. Higher energy prices are increasing inflation concerns and putting additional pressure on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate outlook.
Gold moved above $4,400 as investors sought safe-haven assets and positioned ahead of the U.S. inflation report. Markets are closely watching tomorrow’s CPI data for further clues on the Fed’s rate path.
U.S. equities remain cautious as higher oil prices raise concerns about inflation and interest rates. Investors are mainly watching U.S. CPI, Treasury yields and expectations for Fed rate cuts.
