Key themes driving global commodities right now:

• Markets are hoping China could pressure Iran toward a deal with the US, potentially easing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and restoring disrupted energy flows.

• The IEA sharply cut its 2026 oil demand outlook again. Global demand is now expected to decline by 420k barrels/day year-on-year.

• Oil supply losses since February have reached 12.8 million barrels/day, while global inventories continue to fall rapidly.

• OPEC crude production dropped another 1.73 million barrels/day in April as Gulf exports remain disrupted.

• US crude inventories posted another major drawdown, signaling tighter physical markets heading into summer demand season.

• Copper traded above $14,000/ton, close to all-time highs, as supply disruptions and tight inventories continue to dominate the market.

• China’s stronger spot demand and limited sulphur supply in the Middle East are adding further pressure to industrial metals markets.

• Speculative positioning in copper has climbed to the highest level since December 2025.

• India doubled import tariffs on gold and silver from 6% to 15% in an effort to protect FX reserves and support the rupee.

• India also banned sugar exports until the end of September due to domestic supply concerns and weaker production expectations.

What’s Next?

Commodity markets are no longer trading purely on supply-demand fundamentals. Geopolitics, shipping routes, sanctions, AI-driven metal demand, and central bank pressures are now deeply interconnected. The Trump–Xi meeting could become a major short-term catalyst not only for oil, but for the entire global risk environment.