23/02/2023 Evening Reports
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January, which we track in the Euro Zone, decreased by 0.2% month on month as expected and increased by 8.6% year on year. In the previous data, CPI was -0.4% and 9.2%, respectively. Core CPI for January, on the other hand, decreased 0.8% month on month and increased 5.3% year on year. Although the rate of increase in inflation in the Euro Zone has decreased, it is still above the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target level of 2%. Therefore, it can be expected that the ECB will continue to increase interest rates for a while.
- At its meeting today, the CBRT lowered the policy rate, which was 9.00%, by 50 basis points to 8.5%. In the statement made, it was stated that priority will be given to the creation of suitable financial conditions in order to minimize the effects of the disaster and support the necessary transformation, that the level and trend of inflation began to improve with the support of the policies implemented, that it became more important to be supportive of financial conditions, and that measured interest rate cuts would support the post-earthquake recovery. was stated to be sufficient.
- In the USA, the GDP announced for the fourth quarter remained below the expectations and showed a growth of 2.7%. The economy was expected to grow by 2.9%. The US economy grew by 3.2% in the third quarter. The Weekly Unemployment Benefit Applications, which is another important data we follow in the USA, was 192 thousand people. Unemployment Benefit Applications came in last week at the level of 195 thousand.
18:30 (GMT+3) USA Natural Gas Stocks
18:50 (GMT+3) Speech by FOMC Member Bostic
19:00 (GMT+3) US Crude Oil Stocks
EUR/USD – Trying to Hold on to 1.06 The Next Day of FOMC Minutes…
In the FOMC minutes released yesterday, the consensus on maintaining the hawkish tone and the renewal of this language supported the Dollar index. As such, the EURUSD parity declined to 1.06 support yesterday. Price movements are limited today and there is an effort to hold above 1.06 support. Although the declines continue step by step, there is still an image above the uptrend line from 0.9550. Therefore, these decreases can be interpreted as profit selling/adjustment as long as the trend is not broken.
USD/TRY – Continuing in 18.87 Region After CBRT…
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey lowered the interest rate by 50 basis points, contrary to the expectations of a 100 basis point rate cut in general, at the meeting it held today. Although the dollar rate decreased slightly after the lower-than-expected interest rate cut, it continues to be priced at 18.87 levels in general.
We continue to look at the dollar rate with weekly candles. The 8-week average follows the current trend. As long as the weekly candle does not close below this average, we can expect the current trend to be maintained.
XAU/USD – 1818 Support Tested While Printing Is In Progress…
Printing continues on the yellow metal side. In the short term, it continues to decline within the descending wedge structure. The upper band of this wedge structure was tested many times during the week. However, a permanent break could not be achieved. Testing 1818 support again today. If a four-hour candle closes below this support, it is possible that the negative trend will continue to be felt strongly.
In possible reactions, the 1830 level will be the first resistance during the day. A few four-hour candle closes above 1830 could trigger attacks and a backlash towards 1853 could occur.
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