US Prioritizes Trade Deal Quality Over August 1 Deadline; Treasury Secretary Calls for Fed Review; European Earnings Highlight Tariff Risks; Japan’s PM Ishiba’s Future in Doubt Following Election Backlash • The Trump administration is prioritizing the “quality” of trade deals over the August 1 deadline for new tariffs, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said. He […]

ECB, Fed, BoE: Who Will Blink First? • The 25bp Obsession Is Being QuestionedCentral banks still move in small steps. But in a world of fixed-rate mortgages and corporate hedging, this slow approach may no longer be effective. • Bank of England Struggles to Find Middle GroundHawks oppose any cut, doves want a bold one. […]

Markets Brace for PMI and ECB Signals: Is a Euro Rate Shift Coming? Euro Rates Outlook• The European Central Bank (ECB) meets on July 24, but no rate cut is expected — the focus is on forward guidance.• Markets are split between a September or December cut; the ECB must tread carefully to manage expectations.• […]

Fed Official Suggests July Rate Cut Despite Resilience; Trump to Unveil AI Action Plan Easing Regulation; China Aims to Enjoy “Healthy” Trade Relations with US; JGB Sell-off Driven by Japan Election • Despite indications of resilience in the US economy, Fed/Waller reinforced his proposal for a 25 basis point cut in the interest rate in […]

Powell Panic, EU Budget and UK Jobs • Powell’s (Non-)Firing Shakes MarketsYesterday market believed President Trump was firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell.EUR/USD jumped 1.3% and US yields moved sharply.Trump later denied it, and markets fully reversed the move.This shows growing market resistance to political noise and headline risks. • Macro Data in FocusProducer Price Index […]

Trump Spins on Powell Ouster (with Caveat); House Approves Crypto Legislation Following GOP Roadblock; TSMC Reports All-Time High Profit on AI Boom; Chinese Steelmakers Dodge Tariffs • President Donald Trump delivered conflicting messages regarding the fate of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, stating it’s “highly unlikely” he would be fired “unless he has to resign […]

Dollar Fights Back as CPI Miss Fails to Convince • Yesterday’s US CPI data didn’t deliver the dovish surprise markets had priced in. The dollar rallied sharply—its best day in a month—as expectations for near-term Fed cuts faded.• Markets had been overly speculative, banking on political pressure rather than economic reality to drive the Fed’s […]

EU Prepares Counter-Tariffs, Appeals for International Cooperation as Trump’s 30% EU Tariff Takes Form; Gold Increases on Trade War Fears; China’s Trade Surplus at Historic High on Diversified Exports • The European Union is set to escalate its revenge for President Donald Trump’s latest tariff threats, which include a 30% across-the-board tariff on EU exports […]

Dollar Steady, Sterling Soft: Can Inflation Shift the Balance? • All eyes are on today’s US June CPI release at 14:30 CET. A 0.3% MoM increase is expected, and any surprise could significantly impact dollar sentiment and delay or accelerate Fed easing expectations.• The dollar index (DXY) remains in consolidation. A stronger-than-expected CPI could push […]

EU Prepares $84 Billion Counter-Tariff List as US Negotiations Break Down; Investor Confidence Hits Record High Amid Trade Disputes   The European Union is stepping up plans for a trade war with the United States, finishing a second list of €72 billion ($84 billion) of countermeasures against US goods including Boeing aircraft, autos, and bourbon. […]