15/02/2023 Evening Reports
- According to the statement made by the Ministry of Treasury and Finance, in January 2023, central government budget expenditures were announced as 321.3 billion TL, budget revenues as 289.1 billion TL and budget deficit as 32.2 billion TL. The primary deficit was realized as 10.9 billion TL.
- The Consumer Price Index fell -0.6% in January, according to data from the UK’s Office for National Statistics. Compared to January of the previous year, it increased by 10.1%. Despite the decrease in monthly inflation due to the decrease in energy prices, annual inflation remains above 10 percent. In addition, after the data announced, there was a pullback in GBPUSD parity to 1.20 levels.
- Industrial Production data in the Euro Zone came in even lower than negative expectations. It was announced as -1.1%, while the expectation for December was -0.8%. On an annual basis, it was announced as -1.7% against the expectation of -0.7%. Additionally, in December, the Trade Balance was recorded as -8.8 billion Euros.
- Retail Sales in the US were announced more positively than positive expectations behind negative progress. Retail Sales were announced as 3.0% in January, above the expectations of 1.8% increase. Compared to January of the previous year, an increase of 6.38% was recorded. Additionally, Core Retail Sales rose 2.3% in January, when expected to rise 0.8%.
- While the US Dollar index continued to appreciate with the positive US data during the day, the US 10-year bond yields continued to rise step by step. While the ounce of gold is withdrawn, the US stock markets continue to maintain their recent gains.
EUR/USD – The Downtrend Continues Where It Left Off…
With the inflation data coming yesterday, prices immediately pulled back after hitting the 1.1030/1.0655 Fibo 38.2 correction that we saw in February. The parity, which regressed after hitting 1.08, is currently priced at 1.0675.
Following the Retail Sales data, which came in at 16.30 today and exceeded expectations, the downward trend in the parity remains strong.
The main intraday support level will be 1.0655. This zone was tested last week. If this region is broken, movements in favor of the dollar can be strongly felt.
XAU/USD – 1616/1960 Continues Its Rise Correction…
The bearish trend in the yellow metal continues. In the past weeks, after a strong decline after the US Non-Farm, there was a slight reaction from 1865 to 1888 and a reverse flag formation was formed. This pattern is working and bearish trend continues. As of today, there has been a pullback until the 1830 support. With the decline experienced today, the Fibonacci 38.2 correction of the 1616/1960 rise has been reached. We will carefully monitor this region, which is one of the important correction points. The continuation of the decline could bring us step by step into the Fibo 61.8 retracement zone, which coincides with the 1750 level.
In possible reactions, 1852 is the intermediate resistance and 1865 is the level that we will watch as the main resistance during the day.
GBP/USD – Yesterday’s Post-Injection Fall Continues Rapidly…
After the immediate reaction after the US inflation yesterday, the Fibonacci 61.8 correction of the 1.2455/1.1965 decline was made as seen in the chart. After this reaction, we see a clear decline in the pair and as of today, the pair has dropped below 1.20.
As the downtrend continues, the next main support is 1.1965. Breaking below this region will bring the 1.1830 level, which is the neck region of the double top formation, which we mentioned in our previous reports, to the agenda.
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