14/12/2022 Evening Reports
- Inflation figures announced on Tuesday fed the moves against the US dollar before the Fed meeting. The US consumer price index rose 0.1% in November, slower than economists expected, and the headline CPI rose 7.1% in the 12 months to November – the slowest pace in nearly a year. This situation has also increased the hopes that the Fed, which will announce its interest rate decision at 22:00 (GMT+3), can slow down the rate of increase. The Fed will likely raise interest rates by 50 basis points to 4.50%.
- On the other hand, most of the focus will be on the “dot plot” chart, which reflects the committee members’ projections of future interest rate movements. The median terminal rate estimate at the September meeting was 4.6%. However, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and several Fed members made statements that higher revisions are likely to come on the dot chart in December. A final rate forecast below 5% could force the USD to remain under downward pressure or vice versa. On the other hand, future economic projections, especially inflation and growth, and President Powell’s tone at the press conference will also be important.
- When we look at the pre-Fed prices, the US Dollar index, which lost strength after the inflation data yesterday, is relatively more durable but does not show any sign of a meaningful recovery. The US 10-year Treasury yield is priced around 3.5% today, after falling 3.42% on Tuesday.
- UK consumer inflation fell more-than-expected in November after hitting a 41-year high in October, raising hopes that price growth has peaked. On an annual basis, inflation fell to 10.7% in November from 11.1% in October, according to the Office for National Statistics data. Market expectations were for a easing to 10.9%. Hopes that inflation has peaked may also ease the hand of the Bank of England (BOE), which will take place on Thursday. He expects the BoE to raise rates from 3% to 3.5% on Thursday, despite the BoE’s own projections that the economy is headed for a prolonged recession.
BRENT – The Reactions Have Been Continuing Since the Beginning of the Week…
On the side of Brent Petrol, the reaction that started from the 75.60 support since the beginning of the week continues from where it left off. Brent price climbed above $80 again. However, as long as there is no hold above the overall 86.40 here, the rises are likely to remain in reaction. Below, we will continue to watch 75.60 as the main weekly support.
XAU/USD – A Positive Image Can Last Above 1806 Level…
The yellow metal reacted after the US inflation yesterday, and rose up to 1824. Afterwards, although it gave back some of its rise, the daily candle close remained above the 1806 support. FED’s decisions will be important tonight, and in case of pigeon messages from the FED, the upward trend in the yellow metal may continue. Here, the reference zone for us in the short term will be 1806 support.
EUR/USD – We Watch with Moving Average, Close to Yesterday’s Response Zone…
The pair retested the region it reacted to after the US inflation data yesterday. We will follow the 1.0680 resistance during the FED meeting tonight. Here, it is a bullish one since 0.9550, which is following the 13-day average since 0.99. In a possible decline, we will see if there is a daily candle close below the 13-day average, and as long as it stays above the 13-day average, the Euro trend in the pair may continue step by step.
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