14/10/2024 Evening Reports
OPEC has revised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024, now projecting an increase of 1.93 million barrels per day (bpd), down from 2.03 million bpd last month. This marks the third consecutive downward revision for the organization.
The downgrade is largely attributed to China, with OPEC reducing its growth forecast for Chinese demand from 650,000 bpd to 580,000 bpd. Although government stimulus is expected to support demand in the fourth quarter, economic challenges and a shift towards cleaner fuels are impacting oil use.
Additionally, OPEC lowered its 2025 global demand growth estimate to 1.64 million bpd from 1.74 million bpd.
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US Equity Futures Rise as Investors Look to Earnings Amid Soft Landing Optimism
US equity futures climbed, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 contracts ticking higher, as investors looked ahead to corporate earnings for validation of soft landing hopes.
Despite lofty valuations, optimism persists due to a more accommodative Federal Reserve.
The S&P 500’s 20% rise through September marks its strongest first nine months since 1997.
In contrast, oil prices fell, and Chinese stocks rose amid disappointment over Beijing’s limited fiscal stimulus measures.
Bitcoin surged as investors saw potential benefits from Chinese stock outflows.
Corporate earnings reports from major US banks are expected to further test market sentiment.
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Will Speculative Dollar Shorts Crumble as Key Technical Level Breaks?
The remaining speculative short positions on the U.S. dollar are facing increased pressure after a key technical level was breached.
- Net Speculative Shorts: The value of dollar short positions held by speculators dropped to $8.52 billion (week ending Oct. 8), down from $12.82 billion the previous week.
- USD Index: The index is nearing last week’s peak of 103.170, the highest level since mid-August.
- Technical Break: A sustained break above the 103.140 Fibonacci level (50% retracement of the June-September drop) could lead to a stronger dollar rally, putting pressure on the remaining speculative short positions.
