07/10/2022 Evening Reports
- US Non-Farm Employment (TDI) increased by 263,000 in September, according to data released Friday by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The market expectation was that there would be an increase of 250 thousand. Unemployment Rate decreased from 3.7% to 3.5%. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% on a monthly basis, in line with market expectations, while they increased by 5.0% on an annual basis, slightly below the 5.1% expectation.
- As the TDI figures came in better than the market expectations, the probability of the Fed’s interest rate hike by 75 basis points in November increased, while the US Dollar started to gather strength against its rivals. The dollar index rose as high as 112.82.
- While the US 10-year bond yields moved up to the 3.90% band, US futures stock indexes deepened their intraday losses.
- Industrial production in Germany, the largest economic power in the Euro Zone, decreased by 0.8% in August. Market expectations were for a 0.5% decline. Retail sales also fell by 1.3% in August, exceeding the market expectation of -1.1%.
- Canada’s September employment figures showed a better-than-expected outlook. Employment change in September came in at 21.1K, better than expected 20.0K, while the unemployment rate fell from 5.4% to 5.2%.
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EUR/USD
EUR/USD – Non-Farm and Dollar Index Gains Strength…
After the Non-Farm Employment Change, which was well explained in line with the current trends in the USA, the upward trend on the Dollar Index continued from where it left off. The pair is back below the 0.98 level and is now in the 0.9750 region. As long as it stays below the 1.00 region, we think the upsides can only remain as a reaction. While the movement in favor of the dollar continues under 1.00 in general, if it continues to stay below 0.9820 in the future, this trend may continue by increasing its strength.
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XAU/USD
XAU/USD – Yellow Metal Sagged Up To 1697 Support…
As of the middle of the week, ounce gold had started to withdraw from the critical 1725 level with profit selling. We saw that the yellow metal was further suppressed after the US Non-Farm data, which came in strong today and supported the dollar index. With this suppression, it dropped to 1697 critical support, but it’s holding on here. The region between 1697/1725 is important and we will pay attention to the support resistances here.
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GBP/USD
GBP/USD – There Is A Small Diameter Formation But It Cannot Be Confirmed Without Breaking 1.1035!
While the sterling side continued its weak stance, it approached the 1.1035 support in the step-by-step pullbacks. As such, 38.2% of the 1.0330/1.1485 rise was corrected. A head-to-shoulder structure appears on the four-hour chart here, but for this structure to break down, we must see that the 1.1035 support is broken. Otherwise, the formation preparation may be canceled and we may encounter a reaction in the parity. The 1.1220 level will be the first to be important in the reactions.
W#
W# – The Slight Decline in the Recent Days Stuck at the 21-Day Average…
Wheat prices rose gradually from 729 levels to 945. This rise was mostly followed by the 21-day average. With the recent decline, this average is being tested. If he can hold on, we can see an attack again. But if it is broken, some profit sale may come. In possible profit sales, 815 level will be watched as the main weekly support.
In the reactions, 907 is the intermediate region and 945 is the main region.
AUD/USD
AUD/USD – We will continue to monitor in the range of 0.64/0.6560…
The Australian Dollar is one of the currencies most affected by a possible risk environment. For this reason, it is difficult to recover in times of calm against the strong Dollar. We will continue to monitor the pair, which has been priced in the 0.64/0.6560 range for the last two weeks, between these two levels. Although the pressure continues in the current situation, we need to see a hold above the 0.6680 level for possible reactions to hold in the short term. If that doesn’t happen, the backlash can create a sales opportunity.
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