01/09/2025 Daily Reports
Metals:
• Gold prices extended gains, supported by hopes of a Fed rate cut in September.
• Much hinges on the upcoming U.S. jobs report – another weak reading would likely strengthen the case for easing.
• Speculators lifted net long gold positions by 6,363 lots, reaching 148,122.
Energy:
• Oil prices remain under pressure despite France & Germany pushing for secondary sanctions on Russian energy buyers.
• Speculators increased net long positions in ICE Brent but continued to reduce WTI holdings – now at the smallest level since 2007.
• Ukraine continues targeting Russian refineries, raising risks for refined products and crude flows.
Agriculture:
• Brazil’s sugarcane harvest in Central-South region accelerated, crushing 47.6mt in early August (+8.2% YoY).
• Sugar mix rose to 55%, driving a 16% YoY increase in sugar output.
• Ukraine’s grain exports fell 40% YoY; corn shipments slumped 61%, wheat down 25%.
What’s Next?:
• The market’s muted response to sanction risks suggests investors are more focused on fundamentals like supply surpluses and Fed policy shifts. The key watchpoints are WTI’s record-low speculative positioning and the U.S. jobs report, both of which could set the tone for commodities in September.
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U.S. appeals court has limited Trump’s power to impose tariffs; EU manufacturing has expanded for the first time in years; The Nikkei has fallen due to a pullback in technology and China’s ambitions in the chip industry.
• A U.S. federal court has made it hard for President Donald Trump to put his trade policy into action. The court said that he went beyond the power he was given when he put tariffs on lots of goods. These tariffs were put in place because of an emergency, but the court said that he did not have the power to do this. This could eventually mean that billions of dollars in tariffs collected will have to be refunded. It has created uncertainty in global trade, especially for exporters in Europe and Asia. The tariffs will stay in place until the Supreme Court has made a decision.
• In Europe, signs are pointing to an economic recovery. In August, the Eurozone’s final Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) went above 50 for the first time since early 2022. This shows that the economy is expanding again, and it’s good news for companies that do well in a growing economy. Germany’s manufacturing PMI also improved, but it is still just below the level that indicates growth.
• At the same time, the Nikkei index in Japan went down. This was similar to a selloff on Wall Street. The tech sector’s decline was driven by reports of China’s growing ambitions in the chip industry, which had a negative impact on the sentiment for U.S. tech giants like Nvidia and AMD. A report on China’s manufacturing activity was positive, but this was not enough to make up for the weak technology sector in Japan.
