31/03/2023 Evening Reports
*The UK’s fourth-quarter GDP, announced today, exceeded expectations and grew by 0.1% quarterly and 0.6% year-on-year. The data was expected to come in at 0.0% and 0.4%, respectively. The Housing Price Index, another data we follow in the UK, came in at -0.8% monthly and -3.1% annually, lower than expected.
*The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the Euro Zone for February increased by 0.9% monthly and 6.9% year on year. The previous data was 0.8% and 8.5%, respectively. Core CPI, which was followed more closely by the European Central Bank (ECB) in the interest rate hike process, increased by 1.2% monthly and 5.7% annually. The previous data had increased by 0.8% and 5.6%.
*The PCE Price Index, which is the data closely followed by the FED in the interest rate hike process, was announced. The PCE Price Index rose 0.3% month on month and 5.0% year on year in February. Core PCE Price Index rose 0.3% and 4.6%. Despite the increase in the data, there was a decrease in the rate of increase on an annual basis compared to the previous data. The previous PCE and Core PCE came in at 5.4% and 4.7% respectively. With the decrease in the rate of increase in the data, there were depreciation in the Dollar Index.
EURUSD – 1.0930 Remains Resistance
Having tested the 1.0930 resistance yesterday, the pair remains below this level and the moves are a little more sideways today. Generally, we watch the day between 1.0930 and 1.0860. Possible dips here could be the application of a double top pattern and 1.0735 will be our main intraday support line to this situation.
In intraday movements in favor of the Euro, the 1.0930 level will continue to be a resistance as it was yesterday.
XAUUSD – 10-Day Narrowing Triangle Structure Has Begun to Draw Attention…
While the yellow metal continues to price in the 1982/1975 range for two days, there is a narrowing triangle in the wider time frame starting from 2010. This triangle is getting narrower day by day. Therefore, we will watch the pricing in the narrowing triangle structure more carefully in the coming days.
In intraday movements, we will follow the horizontal movement within the 1982 resistance and 1975 support range and the possible breakdown of this horizontality.
USDTRY – Current Trend Continues with 8-Week Average…
We continue to monitor the dollar rate on a weekly chart. This week, the increases were slightly higher than the previous weeks. We follow the current trend with an 8-week average. As long as there is no significant weekly candle close below this average, we can technically expect the continuation of the current trend.
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