26/01/2023 Evening Reports
CBRT Chairman Şahap Kavcıoğlu made statements regarding the inflation report published today. In the statement made, he stated that the inflation rate in 2023 will be between 17.8 percent and 26.9 percent at the end of the year with a 70 percent probability, and between 4.0 percent and 13.7 percent by the end of 2024. Kavcıoğlu talked about the record deficit in energy and foreign trade balance, especially in the European Union, where the most important commercial partnerships are, as the Russia-Ukraine War in 2022 caused serious increases in energy and commodity prices. He shared that the normalization process has gained momentum with the recent retreats in energy prices.
- The CBRT removed the upper interest limit in the Currency Protected Deposit (CPD) system. In addition to the policy rate of 9 percent until this decision, banks could pay a maximum of 3 percent, or 12 percent, in addition to the policy rate. In this case, the TL deposit interest, which exceeded 30 percent, remained at a very low level. CPD accounts, which have started to decline recently, are expected to gain popularity again with this decision.
- GDP in the US for the 4th quarter, which we are watching today, grew by 2.9%, above the expectation of 2.6%. Durable Goods Orders also came in at 5.6%, higher than expected 2.6%. Weekly Claims for Unemployment Benefit, on the other hand, were 186,000 less than expected. The data was expected to be 205 thousand people.
GAU/TRY – Rising with the Support from the Lower Band of the Channel…
In the US, the GDP for the fourth quarter, which we are watching today, grew by 2.9%, above the expectation of 2.6%. Durable Goods Orders also came in at 5.6%, higher than expected 2.6%. After these data, the lower band of the rising price channel, which we watched in the Gr Gold TL in the 4-hour period, was tested. It also rises with the support received from here. In the continuation of the rise, 1175 and 1182 can be viewed as resistance. In retracements, the lower band of the channel can create significant support. It should be noted that in case of a downward exit from the channel, transactions in favor of TL may gain momentum.
CRUDE – The Uptrend Continues After Profit Sales…
Crude Oil, which retreated with the resistance encountered in the falling price trend, is rising again with the effect of losses in the Dollar Index. Crude Oil, which entered the day from 80.46 support, continues to price around 81.50 resistance. These levels also coincide with the downtrend line. On the upside break of this trend, 82.62 level may form resistance. In case the profit sales show the effect again, the 80.46 level can create support.
EUR/USD – US Reacts From 1.0873 Resistance After GDP Data…
Today at 16:30 (GMT+3), the US 4th Quarter GDP data was announced as 2.9%, above the 2.6% expectation. After the data, although there was a pullback in the parity to the support of 1.0873, Euro showed its strength against the Dollar and there was a recovery to 1.0900 levels. Instant pricing continues step by step at the center of the bullish channel. In case of the continuation of the uptrend, 1.0935 may form resistance. In case of a downward movement, 1.0873 can be supported.
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