29/07/2026 Daily Reports
Global markets remained cautious on Wednesday as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s policy decision and Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference for further guidance on the interest rate outlook. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continued to trade near recent highs, while Treasury yields stayed elevated as markets maintained expectations that the Fed will keep rates unchanged while retaining a cautious stance on future policy.
U.S. equity index futures traded mixed ahead of the announcement, reflecting cautious positioning before one of the week’s key macro events. Meanwhile, oil prices remained supported by renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, adding to inflation concerns. Gold traded in a narrow range as higher Treasury yields and a firmer dollar offset safe-haven demand, while silver outperformed slightly on resilient industrial demand and continued investor interest. Markets are now looking to the Fed’s statement and Chair Warsh’s remarks for clues on the timing of future policy moves, which are expected to drive near-term price action across currencies, commodities, and equity markets.
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USD – Fed Hold Could Pressure the Dollar
Markets widely expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged. With only a 25–30% chance of a hike priced in, a confirmed hold could trigger USD selling as traders unwind defensive long positions. If Middle East tensions remain contained and oil stays below US$90, the DXY could fall toward the 101.0 support level.
EUR – Eyes on 1.15
EUR/USD likely found a bottom last week. A dovish Fed and improving risk sentiment are needed for a move back above 1.15. However, ongoing volatility in tech stocks may limit gains, with 1.1400–1.1450 as the first upside target.
AUD – Inflation Miss Weighs on the Aussie
Australia’s June CPI slowed faster than expected, reducing expectations for further RBA tightening. As a result, two-year swap rates fell 10bp, making the AUD the weakest G10 currency of the day.
US Fed Decision in Focus
Markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged.
The main focus will be on the FOMC statement and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments regarding the future path of monetary policy.
Investors will be closely watching for any signals about a potential rate move at the September meeting.
Technology Stocks Face a Key Test
Microsoft and Meta are set to report earnings today.
Beyond headline earnings, investors will be focused on the companies’ artificial intelligence (AI) investments, capital expenditure (AI CapEx), and forward guidance.
The results could have a significant impact on the Nasdaq and overall market risk sentiment.
Oil Prices Continue to Rise
Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have pushed oil prices higher.
Rising energy costs are reinforcing inflation concerns and increasing expectations that central banks could delay further interest rate cuts.
Asian Chip Stocks Under Pressure
South Korea’s SK Hynix declined sharply despite reporting strong earnings.
Concerns over the sustainability of AI-related investment spending and intensifying competition from China weighed on the semiconductor sector across Asia.
