11/09/2026 – Daily Reports
Dollar Gains as Oil Shock Fuels Fed Hike Bets
- The dollar holds near a one-week high as rising oil prices and Treasury yields support safe-haven demand.
- Brent climbs above $108, extending its six-day rally as Middle East energy-supply risks deepen.
- Fed hike expectations rise, with markets now pricing a 71.3% chance of a 25 bps hike next week.
- U.S. 10-year Treasury yield approaches the key 5% level at 4.965%.
- USD/JPY rises toward 155, while stronger Japanese inflation keeps BOJ hike expectations alive.
- Markets now turn to U.S. CPI, one of the final major inflation indicators before the Fed’s September meeting.
What’s Next?
- Oil above $100 is becoming the key driver for markets. A sustained energy shock could keep inflation and U.S. yields elevated, supporting the dollar while increasing pressure on the Fed.
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Daily Market Highlights
- U.S. CPI is the key market event today. Following Thursday’s PPI data, markets are now pricing around a 70% probability of a Fed rate hike next week. Today’s CPI report will be crucial for the Fed’s policy outlook.
- Oil retreated today after Brent climbed to around $107 yesterday. Brent is now trading near $103.6, but ongoing supply risks around the Strait of Hormuz continue to create significant inflation concerns.
- U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated, with the 10-year yield approaching 5%. Higher yields continue to weigh on equities; the S&P 500 fell 0.58%, the Nasdaq 0.65% and the Dow 0.60% on Thursday.
- Gold remains under pressure from rising rate-hike expectations and is heading for a weekly decline of more than 2%. Spot gold is around $4,325. A softer CPI could support gold, while a stronger reading could strengthen the dollar and push yields higher.
