21/03/2023 Evening Reports
The Zew Economic Index for March, announced today in Germany and the Euro Zone, was below expectations. The data fell to -46.5 in Germany and 10.0 in the Eurozone. In the assessment, it was stated that international financial markets are under pressure, the high level of uncertainty is reflected in the Zew Economic Index, and the profits of banks have deteriorated significantly, although still positive.
US Treasury Secretary Yellen said in her speech today that the measures taken by the Treasury, FED and FDIC have reduced the risk of other bank collapses, that the steps to protect the SVB Bank are aimed at protecting the US banking system, not specific banks, and that deposit outflows from regional banks have stabilized.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February, which we tracked in Canada, came in at 0.4% monthly and 5.2% annually, increasing less than expected. Core CPI, on the other hand, increased by 0.5% and 4.7%, respectively. CPI and Core CPI had increased by 5.9% and 5.0% in the previous data. After the rate of increase in inflation started to decrease in Canada, expectations may arise that the Bank of Canada will gradually end interest rate hikes.
Agenda of the day;
- 18:30 (GMT+3) Speech by ECB Member Enria
- 23:30 (GMT+3) US API Crude Oil Stocks
XAU/USD – Shoulder in Hourly Working Head and Shoulder, Under 1970…
The yellow metal tumbled with step-by-step profit sales after climbing as high as 2010 on Monday. The head-to-shoulder structure formed in the top region was especially evident on the hourly chart, and there was also a mismatch on the RSI side of the hourly chart. The shoulder head and shoulder structure is working as of today and the neck area was broken in 1968. In addition, the uptrend line, which started from 1808 at the beginning of March, is about to be broken down. As we stay below 1968, we can trace possible declines back to 1935.
EUR/USD – We Will Pay Attention to Possible Closing Above 1.0735…
The rise in the parity continues today after the support from the uptrend. This trend comes from 0.9550.
As of today, we see a pricing above 1.0735. There has been no daily candle close above this level since the beginning of February. If there is a close above 1.0735 today, the movements in favor of the Euro may gain even more strength. We will follow this.
Tomorrow’s FED meeting results could increase volatility even more.
USD/JPY – Reacting to 50-Day Average After Yesterday’s Close…
After sagging up to 130.55 yesterday, the daily candle close was lifted at 131.40. This zone was important as the recent 127.50/138.05 rise coincided with the Fibonacci 61.8 retracement. It reacted again today with the daily candle closing above this region. The result of this reaction touches the 50-day average, which corresponds to the average level of 132.60.
In case of a daily candle close above the 50-day average, movements in favor of the Yen may take a break for a while. Therefore, we will be watching 132.60 above and 131.40 below as important resistance and support levels.
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