20/09/2022 Evening Reports
Producer inflation in Germany, the largest economy in the Euro Zone, increased above expectations in August. We can say that the 20.4% increase in energy prices is the main factor of the high inflation. The biggest producer price increase since 1949, when the data started to be kept, shows that inflation pressures in Europe’s largest economy will ease in the near future. The region’s currency, the Euro, continues to be under pressure ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision to be announced tomorrow. The pair slipped below the 1.00 band towards the US session. German 2-year government bond yields reached their highest level in 11 years.
While the US Dollar index maintained its strength near its 20-year high, selling pressure prevailed in the US stock market indices and the German Dax30 futures index. The upward trend in US bond yields continued today. The 10-year yield rose to 3.58% from February 2011, while the two-year yield rose to its highest level since November 2007
When we look at the data announced on the US side, construction permits fell sharply and pointed out that the housing market has slowed down. The permit requested in August decreased by 10% and experienced the sharpest decline since May 2020. The permit received was 1 million 517 thousand, and this figure was recorded as the lowest level after September 2020. In Canada, another important economic power in the North American continent, inflation slowed down in August. Headline inflation increased by 7.0% on an annual basis, below both expectations and the previous period.
The Swedish Central Bank, Riksbank, surprisingly increased the policy rate by 100 basis points to 1.75 percent. This was the largest rate hike since November 1992.
GAU/TRY – Withdrawn to 980.25 Support…
After the rises seen in Gr Gold TL for 2 days, there were retreats up to 980.25 support with the effect of the decrease in Ounce Gold. In case of holding above 980.25 level, 996 and 1008 can be viewed as resistance. If the 980.25 level is broken and below, the transactions in favor of TL may accelerate. In this case, 968 and 953.50 can create support.
EUR/USD – Rising Price Trend Being Tested…
Housing Starts for August, which we tracked in the US, increased by 12.2%, while Building Permits decreased by 10.0%. After the mixed data, the rising price trend, which we follow in the 4-hour period, is being tested in the EURUSD parity. In case of holding on this trend, we can see recovery. In this case, it can be viewed as 0.9998 and 1.0072 resistance. If the rising price trend is broken, transactions in favor of the Dollar may gain momentum.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August, announced in Canada, decreased by 0.3% month on month and increased by 7.0% year on year. On the US side, Housing Starts for August increased by 12.2%, while Building Permits decreased by 10.0%. With the effect of these developments and the support received from 1.3239, there was an increase in the USDCAD parity up to the resistance of 1.3315. If this level is exceeded and above, 1.3410 and 1.3539 may form resistance. In pullbacks, 1.3280 and 1.3239 can be followed as support.
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CRUDE – Recovered With Support From 81.77 Level…
After the declines seen in Crude Oil yesterday, there were recoveries with the support from 81.77. In the continuation of the recovery, 87.10 and the upper band of the falling price channel can be viewed as resistance. In case of an upward exit from the channel, the rises may gain momentum. In case of staying in the channel, 84.86 and 82.93 can create support. Let us remind you that the US API Crude Oil Stocks will be announced tonight at 23:30 (GMT+3).
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