17/11/2022 Evening Reports

Headline Inflation High in Euro Zone, But Slightly Below Expectations…

*Even though the inflation in the Euro Area increased from 9.9% to 10.6% on an annual basis in October, it remained below the data market expectation of 10.7%. On a monthly basis, consumer inflation increased by 1.5%.

*Eurozone Core inflation increased in line with expectations.
-Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Annual) (Supplemented) Announced:5.0% Expected:5.0% Previous:4.8%
-Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) (MoM) (Added) Announced:0.6% Expected:0.6% Previous:1.0%

*British Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt said in his budget presentation to Parliament that his plans would overcome the cost of living crisis and rebuild the economy. Some details from the budget presentation are as follows;

– The rent increase in mass housing will be at most 7%.
We will increase the minimum wage by 9.7 percent. The hourly wage of the minimum wage will rise to £10.42.
It will increase the working age and disability benefits in line with inflation.
The increase in benefits will cost £11bn.
It will increase the pension loan by 10.1 percent.
-Announced additional tax on “surplus” profits of some electricity producers to help pay for a continued freeze in household energy bills.
*The British Pound weakened overall after British Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt presented the Autumn Budget to Parliament.

*According to the data coming from the US, unemployment benefits applications came in a similar way to the previous week, with 222,000 weekly, and there was no clear break. However, in the housing data for October, we see that contractions continue on a monthly basis.

*As another data from the USA, we followed the Philly FED’s Manufacturing, Employment and New Orders indices. There is a clear decline in all data and we see that the US economy is inevitably affected by interest rate hikes.

-USA – Philly FED Manufacturing Index: -19.4 (Previous: -8.7)
-USA – Philly FED Employment Index: 7.1 (Previous: 28.5)

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    Support Level: 139.40 - 138.40 – 137.40 Resistance Level: 140.65 – 141.80 – 142.80

    USD/JPY

    USD/JPY – Intraday Recovery Weak For Now…

    The USDJPY parity, which fell rapidly after the US inflation data last week, is reacting today with the slight recovery of the US Dollar index and the US 10-year bond yield. With this reaction, if the rise continues for the parity, which touches the 140.65 resistance, our eyes will be on the 142.80 resistance.

    The sharp decline experienced during the week pinned the uptrend line from 126.70. We see a slight recovery after this injection, but the reactions are weak for now. We can talk about strong reaction at a move above 142.80.

    If the weakness persists and the trend from 126.70 is broken, the declines can be predicted to approach the 130 region.

     

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    Support Level: 1773 – 1766 – 1756 Resistance Level: 1783.5 – 1788 – 1797

    XAU/USD

    The Ounce Gold side took a break from the upward trend it started from the 1620 region in 1785 and lost power step by step by drawing an oval image here. As a result of this, especially as of today, it has retreated to the level of 1756, which is the intermediate support zone in the short term. This region is important in the short term, if it is broken, the correction of the rise starting from 1620 can continue step by step. In this case, we will carefully follow the correction zones seen in the chart.

    In possible reactions, we will be watching the reactions towards the 1785 resistance, which is the peak of this week.

    Support Level:  1.0260 – 1.0185 – 1.0100 Resistance Level: 1.0365 – 1.0480 – 1.0625

    EUR/USD

    EURUSD – Profit Sales Continue from the Top of the Week…

    The EURUSD parity stopped its attacks after touching the 233-day average, which has an important place in the Fibonacci numbers, and is having a hard time surpassing it. As of today, with the loss of power due to resistance, there is a light profit sale today.

    We will first trace this profit sell up to 1.0260, which coincides with the Fibonacci 23.6 retracement. Below this region, it is possible that the declines will accelerate. The main short-term support will be the 0.99 level, which coincides with the Fibo 61.8 region.

    We will be watching 1.0480 again for possible reactions.

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