The U.S. dollar traded near its lowest levels of the year as markets anticipate the start of a U.S. easing cycle, with growing expectations of an outsized rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The chance of a 50 basis point rate cut has surged to 67%, driven by media reports suggesting a more aggressive move by the Fed. The euro rallied close to its yearly high, while the yen briefly strengthened as traders anticipated further Fed easing, which could weaken the dollar against major currencies, especially the yen.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is expected to keep its policy steady but may hint at future rate hikes, adding to the contrast between the Fed’s dovish stance and the BoJ’s potential tightening. Sterling remained strong, benefiting from resilience in the UK economy and persistent inflation, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars also rallied. Global markets are now focused on Wednesday’s Fed meeting, with U.S. retail sales and Canadian CPI data also in the spotlight.
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