15/10/2025 Daily Reports
Driven by rate-cut expectations, geopolitical tensions, and investor flight to safety, gold just reached historic territory. Here’s what’s fueling the rally:
- Fed Rate-Cut Expectations:
Markets are pricing in two more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. Lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, boosting demand for precious metals. - US–China Trade Frictions:
President Trump’s latest comments about halting cooking oil trade with China reignited tensions. Beijing’s vow to retaliate added fresh uncertainty, pushing investors toward safe-haven assets. - Record-Breaking Momentum:
Gold surged to a new record of $4200.65/oz. Silver spiked above $53.50 before stabilizing amid a liquidity crunch in London. Platinum and palladium also advanced, riding the wave of risk aversion. - Global Factors Driving the Rally:
Central bank gold purchases remain robust. ETF holdings continue to climb. Investors seek protection from rising deficits and concerns over currency debasement. - The “Debasement Trade”:
Growing fears of fiscal instability and government debt are pushing capital into hard assets like gold and silver. - Market Mood:
Risk-off sentiment dominates as traders brace for more volatility. Haven demand continues to strengthen amid persistent geopolitical and policy uncertainty.
What’s Next?:
2025 is turning into the Year of Gold — with inflation fears, trade wars, and monetary easing combining to drive record highs across the precious metals complex
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- Global equities are displaying risk-on sentiment today, driven by robust performance in Asia and a resurgence in German manufacturing activity. Japan’s Nikkei index has surged to a new record high, tracking US tech gains and fuelled by ongoing optimism following the LDP leadership victory. The yen has weakened past the critical level of ¥150 per USD, prompting the Finance Minister to issue a warning about FX volatility, but providing a strong tailwind for Japanese exporters. Robust consumption, with household spending up 2.3% in August, provides a supportive domestic backdrop.
- US futures are slightly firmer, with the market focusing on the start of Q3 bank earnings this week. The outlook for mega-cap tech remains a ‘swing factor’, influenced by ongoing AI momentum and supply chain signals. Adding to the bullish tone, Germany’s factory orders unexpectedly rebounded by 1.2% month-on-month in August, alleviating recession concerns and offering a positive outlook for European industrials. Europe’s mood has also been lifted by strong luxury earnings (LVMH) and a supportive signal from Chancellor Merz, who is planning to deregulate the European banking sector. Despite ongoing political turmoil in France, improved sentiment and dovish Fed signals are supporting the DAX.
