Is the ECB’s continued rate cutting a sign of effective inflation control, or does it reveal deeper economic vulnerabilities within the Eurozone?
Rate Cut Details: The European Central Bank (ECB) lowered the deposit rate to 3.0%, down from 3.25%, marking its fourth reduction this year. Rates had peaked at a record 4.0% in June.
Easing Financing Conditions: The ECB aims to reduce borrowing costs for households and businesses, although it noted that monetary policy remains restrictive due to the lagging impact of prior hikes.
Signals for Future Policy: The ECB removed its reference to keeping rates “sufficiently restrictive,” leaving the door open for further rate cuts if economic conditions warrant.
Neutral Rate Context: Economists define the “neutral rate”—neither stimulating nor restricting growth—at around 2% to 2.5%, suggesting the ECB is still operating in restrictive territory.
Impact on Lending Rates: The weekly lending rate was cut to 3.15%, and the overnight lending rate to 3.40%, though these facilities have been minimally used due to surplus liquidity from earlier bond purchases.
End of Pandemic Bond Purchases: The ECB confirmed it will cease bond purchases under its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) this month, signaling a shift away from extraordinary monetary measures.
US and European stocks slipped while bond yields rose following the European Central Bank’s (ECB) anticipated quarter-point interest rate cut, marking its fourth reduction this year.
The euro weakened against the dollar and Swiss franc, the latter buoyed by a surprise 50-basis-point rate cut from the Swiss National Bank.
US stock futures pointed to declines, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 contracts down 0.3% and 0.5%, respectively, despite earlier gains driven by in-line US inflation data.
Treasury yields climbed to two-week highs, reflecting investor caution about the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision, with expectations of a quarter-point cut but potential hawkish guidance.
Globally, central banks leaned toward easing, with rate reductions in Canada and Switzerland, hints of cuts in Australia, and stimulus signals from China.
Commodities steadied, with oil pausing after a three-day rally on speculation of tighter Russian and Iranian supply curbs.
In corporate news, Adobe fell over 10% premarket due to a weak forecast, while Uber gained on positive management updates.
In Europe, luxury stocks, including Brunello Cucinelli, rose on stronger growth forecasts and optimism about China’s economic support measures.
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