06/01/2023 Evening Reports
In the December period of the US Non-Farm Report, the employment market continued to gain strength, with earnings slowing on a monthly and annual basis. The Dollar Index’s FIRST reaction was slightly negative, despite the strong job market, as earnings slowed.
However, a reversal was observed in the initial pricing after the US market opened. In general, it would not be wrong to mention that the employment market in the USA continues to be quite strong.
- USA – Non-Farm Employment Change (December): 223,000 (Expected: 200,000 ; Previous: 256,000)
- USA – Average Hourly Earnings (December-monthly): 0.3% (Exp: 0.4% ; Previous: 0.4%)
- USA – Average Hourly Earnings (December-annual): 4.6% (Expected: 5% ; Previous: 4.8%)
- USA – Unemployment Rate (December): 3.5% (Exp.: 3.7%; Previous: 3.6%)
- USA – Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.3% (Previous: 62.2%)
Dollar Index is 105, EURUSD remains below 1.0530.
- December leading inflation in the Euro Zone during the day was 9.2% on an annual basis. The previous month this was 10.1% and we are seeing a slowdown here. Annual core inflation increased from 5% the previous month to 5.2% this month.
In this data, the decrease in headline inflation may bring some relief. However, it is worth paying attention to the rise in core inflation. The ECB may remain on a hawkish track, seeing the core side.
- Retail sales in Germany decreased by -5.9% yoy in November.
EUR/USD – Reacted to 1.0530 Post Non-Farm…
The EURUSD parity, which moved in favor of the Dollar during the day, reacted after the announcement of the US Non-Farm Employment Report at 16.30(GMT+3) today. In the dataset, the employment market remained strong and the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, although the labor force participation rate increased. However, there is a slowdown on the earnings side, both monthly and yearly. On behalf of inflationary pressures, the market’s initial reaction to this data is the Dollar, as average earnings have become a little more important.
The pair climbed above 1.0530 level again. However, it will be necessary to monitor how permanent the initial reaction is.
In the process where a hold above 1.0530 is not achieved, we can expect the movements in favor of the dollar to continue from where they left off. We will be monitoring this situation.
XAU/USD – The Reactions From 1825 Continued With Non-Agriculture…
On a four-hour basis, the yellow metal had dropped to the 1825 level as the short-term negative dissonance worked. Reacting to this support after contact, the yellow metal rose after the US Non-Farm Payrolls report, which was slow on the earnings side today and climbed above 1842 again. It will be necessary to watch how permanent these movements can be. Buyers may gain some strength if four-hour candle closes begin to form above 1842.
In possible decreases, we will follow the 1825 support again.
BRENT – Limited Response From 77.80 Continues After Hard Fall…
Brent oil, which started to decline from the resistance of 87.05 since the beginning of the year, is reacting from this region after falling to the level of 77.80.
We see that the 87.05 region is a horizontal resistance very close to the downtrend line from 125. This downtrend is a very important resistance line. In addition to paying attention to the resistance zones in between, if it comes to the downtrend line again in the continuation of the reactions, it should be carefully monitored whether this zone can be crossed.
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GAU/TRY – As the week is closing, it is close to 1118 again…
On the Gram Gold side, active days continue. As can be seen in the chart, it paused its rise at the Fibonacci 178.6 extension two days ago and the decline was limited to the Fibonacci 161.8 region working as support. There is reaction again today and it is moving towards 1118 level again. In the event that this region cannot be crossed, the support of 1102, which corresponds to the Fibo 161.8 region, will be followed again. A break of 1102 and a daily close may limit positive movements for a while.
So we will be watching movements between 1102 and 1118.
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