04/11/2024 Daily Reports
This week is packed with crucial developments, from the US election showdown to central bank rate decisions worldwide. Here’s a quick breakdown of what’s at stake:
US Presidential Showdown:
With polls showing a tight race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, markets are treading carefully. The outcome is expected to influence inflation, dollar strength, and broader economic policies.
Fed & Global Rate Decisions:
Investors are on edge with key rate decisions from the Fed, BoE, RBA, and others this week, each impacting currencies, bonds, and global equities.
China’s NPC Meeting :
Eyes are on China’s National People’s Congress for potential economic stimulus announcements, as Beijing aims to boost its economy and stabilize growth.
Asian Markets Mixed :
While Japan is on holiday, Asian markets saw mixed trading. Chinese stocks rose slightly amid stimulus hopes, while U.S. stock futures took a cautious dip.
Dollar Slides, Yen Jumps :
The dollar softened as polls showed Harris gaining ground in Iowa, potentially signaling a shift in market sentiment ahead of the election.
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Dollar Dips as U.S. Election Heats Up: Is a Market Shake-Up on the Horizon?
The dollar weakened in Asian trading on Monday as markets awaited a pivotal week for the global economy, with the U.S. presidential election poised to bring potential policy shifts. The euro climbed 0.6% to $1.0901, nearing resistance at $1.0905, while the dollar dropped 0.9% against the yen to 151.60, edging toward key support at 151.45. The dollar index fell 0.3% to 103.63.
U.S. Treasury futures rebounded 12 ticks after Friday’s losses, reflecting cautious optimism. The tight race between Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump could mean days of uncertainty before a winner is confirmed. Analysts suggest Trump’s policies might drive up inflation, bond yields, and the dollar, while Harris is viewed as a candidate for continuity.
An influential poll showing Harris leading by 3 points in Iowa, attributed to strong female voter support, may have contributed to early dollar weakness. JPMorgan analysts noted this surprise lead could indicate her performance in key battleground states.
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Dollar Declines as US Election Uncertainty Grows; Oil Gains on OPEC+ Delay
The dollar fell significantly as investors scaled back bets on a Trump election victory, following a poll indicating a slight lead for Kamala Harris in Iowa.
The US currency dropped against key currencies like the yen and euro, while Treasury futures rose amid uncertainty around the election.
Previously, the dollar and Treasury yields had strengthened on expectations of Trump’s fiscal policies, which could potentially deepen the deficit and fuel inflation.
Oil prices rose over 1% after OPEC+ postponed its planned December production increase.
Meanwhile, Asian shares rose, and Wall Street stock futures gained following strong earnings reports from Amazon and Intel.
This week, markets are set to respond to central bank meetings in the US, UK, and Australia, where the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates amid sluggish job growth influenced by strikes and hurricanes.
