04/10/2022 Evening Reports
- The decline in the US September ISM Manufacturing PMI index, which was announced on Monday, beyond the expectations and the continuing contraction in the manufacturing sector, triggered the pricing against the US Dollar. While the dollar index sees 110 levels today, US futures stock indices are buying. On the other hand, according to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, after this report, the probability of a 75 basis point (bps) rate hike by the Fed once again in November has dropped to 60%. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield fell below 3.60%. When we look at the data flow on the US front, the Job Opportunities and Personnel Change Rate (JOLTS), which is the important data of the day, came in below both the expectations and the previous period with 10,053 million.
- European Economic Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni and Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton called for joint borrowing from the EU to deal with the energy crisis. But German Finance Minister Christian Lindner voiced his opposition, arguing that joint EU debt will not help them strengthen their competitiveness in the long run. It is too early to say what impact such a decision will have on the European Central Bank’s policy outlook, but investors are likely to follow new developments in this area closely. Today, Euro Zone producer price index, another data we follow on the Euro front, increased by 5.0% on a monthly basis and 43.3% on an annual basis in August, above the expectations.
- The Central Bank of Australia (RBA) announced that it increased the policy rate from 2.35% to 2.6%, by 25 basis points compared to the market’s expectation of 50 basis points increase. In its policy statement, the RBA reiterated that the size and timing of future rate hikes will be determined by inflation and labor market data and outlook. Unexpected dovish stance The Australian Dollar remains weak against the US Dollar, despite the US Dollar losing ground in the Global market.
GAUTRY-1016 Resistance Zone Headed to Iron…
GAUTRY, which has been in the forefront of an upward trend since Monday, has increased by 3.5%. The recovery of Ounce Gold in the global market and the upward trend in USDTRY parity has brought Gram Gold/TL to the highest level of 5 weeks with 1022. If GAUTRY continues to rise above the 1016 resistance zone, 1040 and 1058 levels can be viewed as the next resistance zones. On the other hand, if the GAUTRY direction is down, 1003 and 15-week exponential moving average can be followed as the first support zones.
EURUSD – Last Week’s Reaction Continues…
The EURUSD parity continues its reaction movement, which it started from 0.9550 last week, and has reacted above the 0.99 level as of today. Above, the 1.00 region is a remarkable resistance both as the intersection of the downtrend line from 1.15 and as a psychological level. This area will be looked at for possible reactions.
In possible profit sales, the 0.9820 level can be followed as support.
XAUUSD – On the Sixth Day of Reaction…
While the reaction from 1622 continues at full speed, it is now priced close to the 1710 resistance. Above we will watch the short term downtrend line from 1878 as the weekly resistance band. We can think that the rises that this line cannot exceed are a reaction for now.
GBPUSD – Reached 1.1420 Resistance and This Is Important Zone…
On the way to 1.0330 last week, 1.1420 and 1.1355 regions were broken step by step. It reached 1.1420 resistance again in the reactions immediately after touching 1.0330. 1.1420 is important in this respect, and if this zone is exceeded, the reaction could take up to 1.1760. We will be following 1.1420 from this perspective. In case of possible decreases, the first support is 1.1220.
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USDJPY – Continuing Near 145.00 Resistance Despite Dollar Index…
Dollar-Yen parity continues to stay close to the 145.00 resistance zone despite the weakness in the dollar index in recent days. Here, the 145.00 level is important as a daily-based resistance and if there are daily candle closings, the parity can react up to 150.00 levels.
While it will continue to watch 144.10 as intraday support in possible decreases, 141.81 will be followed as support on a weekly basis.
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