04/05/2023 Evening Reports
25 Base Points Increase and Details at ECB Interest Rate Meeting…
*The other day, after the Fed’s decision to increase interest rates by 25 basis points, the ECB decided to increase it to 3.75% with a 25 basis point increase in interest rates.
In the statement published after the decision, it is stated that the inflation outlook continues to be very high for too long, headline inflation has decreased in recent months, but the underlying price pressures remain strong, inflation should be brought to sufficiently restrictive levels to ensure a timely return to the 2% medium-term target and It was stated that it will ensure that it is kept at these levels as long as necessary.
- In his statements, ECB President Lagerde said that the inflation outlook is very high and will remain so for a very long time, household demand remains weak, the manufacturing sector weakens, the service sector is recovering, price pressures remain strong even though headline inflation has fallen in recent months, He stated that subsidies are needed and that the banking sector is strong in the Euro Area.
*The trade balance in Germany gave a surplus of 16.7 billion Euros in March. While the expectations were for a surplus of 16.1 Billion Euros, a surplus of 16.0 Billion Euros was announced in the previous data.
*German Services PMI rose to 56.0 in April, against the expectations of 55.7. It was announced at 53.7 in March. *Euro Area Services PMI was realized as 56.2 in April, against the expectations of 56.6. It was announced at 55 in March.
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EURUSD – Stays Below 1.1065 After ECB…
With the FED meeting, the parity tried above the 1.1065 resistance and rose to 1.1090, and closed below the 1.1065 resistance last night. In line with the expectations, a 25 basis point statement was made at the ECB meeting today. A meeting was held in line with the expectations, and as there were no surprises, the Euro side depreciated slightly and fell to 1.1010.
1.1065 has now become a more important resistance. It will be technically difficult to expect that the movements in favor of the Euro will continue without seeing a one-day candle close above this level. In the short term, 1.0980 is the initial support and if the support is broken, a move towards the uptrend line from 0.9550 can be expected. The trend from 0.9550 is the main resistance zone on a weekly basis.
BRENT – Attacks Remain Limited with Pressure in the Petroleum Market…
The oil market started to recover towards the end of the Asian session, especially after the crude oil side fell sharply at the open tonight, while the pressure was felt again in the European and US sessions. Brent prices are trying to hold on to the 71.75 support, but the picture is quite weak. Interim support is 71.75 on the day, while the main support is in the 70.15 region, which is the lowest level of this year.
We think it should hold above 75.10 at least in order to see a recovery in the Brent market for now.
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Ounce Gold – Historical Peak and After Correction…
Ounce Gold had risen to 2040 with the “pigeon” tone at the FED meeting held yesterday, outweighing it a little. Tonight, with the gap and strong upside opening in the market, it surpassed its historical high but pulled back with profit sales soon after.
After the pricing experienced during the day, it declined until the 2032 support. After the ECB meeting, it reacts, albeit slightly, by maintaining its support for 2032.
Overall, possible four-hour candle closes above the 2049 resistance could increase the yellow metal’s strengthening step by step. It may be premature to expect a new 2070 attack without seeing this.
We will follow the levels of 2032 and 2013, step by step, during the day in possible profit sales.
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