02/05/2023 Evening Reports

Retail Sales in Germany Didn't Meet Expectations, Inflation Still Strong in Euro Zone...

*JOLTS Job Opportunities data from the USA at 17.00 came in at 9.590M, falling short of expectations. Another data that came in the same hour was Factory Orders and this data was realized as 0.9%. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) increased the interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.85% at its meeting this morning, contrary to expectations. The interest rate was expected to remain constant at 3.60%. In the statement, it was stated that inflation is very high and higher interest rates may be needed to bring it to its knees.

*The retail sales data announced in Germany for March came in the opposite direction of the expectations. In the monthly data, retail sales fell to -2.4% against the expectations of a positive change from -0.3% to 0.4%. Compared to the same period of the previous year, it was expected to be updated from -7.1% to -6.1%, but decreased to -8.6%.

*In the Euro Area, consumer price index (CPI) realized as 0.7% on a monthly basis, against the expectations of 0.9%. On an annual basis, it increased by 7.0% as expected. Core consumer inflation rose 1.0% month-on-month against the forecast of 1.1%. On an annual basis, an increase of 5.6% was realized against the expectation of 5.7% increase. The fact that inflation, which was announced before the European Central Bank’s interest rate meeting on Thursday, remains high, may be a sign that the interest rate hike can be continued.

*In April manufacturing PMI data, Germany manufacturing PMI decreased from 44.7 to 44.5, Euro Area manufacturing PMI decreased from 47.3 to 45.8, and UK manufacturing PMI decreased from 47.9 to 47.8. In these 3 regions, the threshold value of 50 has not been exceeded yet. They remain in negative territory.

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    Support: 1.0920 – 1.0835 – 1.0770 Resistance: 1.0980 – 1.1065 – 1.1107


    EURUSD – Remains Below 1.10…

    The FED meeting starts as of today and we will learn the results tomorrow at 21.00 Turkish time. First of all, let’s say right away that the expectation is that the interest rate will be increased by 25 basis points and the policy rate will be reduced to 5-5.25%. In addition to this strong certainty, answers will be sought as to whether the last rate hike of the year has been made at this meeting.

    The parity side, on the other hand, continues its downward trend from 1.1065 levels last week and is priced below 1.10. Below 1.0920 is now an important support and this support also coincides with the uptrend line from 0.9550. Price movements may be limited due to uncertainty until the FED meeting, but we will check the 1.0920 level below as an important support.

    Above 1.1065 is the main resistance.

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    Support: 75.10 – 70.30 – 65.70 Resistance: 77.80 – 80.10 – 83.40


    BRENT – The Fall Continues, Eyes on 75.10 Support…

    Brent prices, after holding at 77.80 and forming an inverted flag formation, continue to retreat with all its strength today and decreased by about $ 4 during the day. For Brent oil, which has receded to 76.50, the 75.10 level is still important for the possibility of a possible reverse shoulder head and shoulder formation to continue. However, if this support is broken, their price could drop below $70. We will watch this carefully.

    In possible reactions, the interday resistance is 77.80 and the main resistance is 80.10.

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    Support: 1994 – 1983 – 1970 Resistance: 2005 – 2013 – 2021


    Ounce Gold – Keeps Moving True to the Triangle

    He tests the lower and upper bands of the narrowing triangle he is trapped in yellow metal every day. The narrower the gap, the easier it is to move between the two bands, but in general the triangle cannot be broken either up or down.

    The FED meeting will of course affect the prices, but technically, we continue to monitor the price movements within this triangle. An explosion of movement may occur in the direction from which the triangle comes out.

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