15/01/2026 Daily Reports
Markets Retreat from Highs: Oil Slump as Trump Signals Easing Iran Tensions
Geopolitical Pivot: Global market sentiment shifted sharply after President Trump stated that tensions with Iran are easing. This prompted a broad pullback in “safe-haven” assets and commodities, reversing earlier rallies driven by supply fears.
- Central Bank Risk: Underlying uncertainty persists regarding the reported DOJ probe into Fed Chair Powell, which continues to raise questions about Federal Reserve independence despite the day’s geopolitical relief.
- Equities & Indices:
- Asia (Nikkei): Japan’s Nikkei 225 experienced a volatile session; after surging to fresh record highs on stimulus hopes, weighed by broader tech weakness.
- US & Europe: Nasdaq futures and major US indices traded slightly lower to mixed, pressured by tech selling and caution ahead of key inflation data. European markets showed resilience, opening moderately higher.
- Commodities Volatility:
- Oil: Brent and WTI crude dropped approximately 3.4% (breaking a multi-day rally) after testing technical levels near $66/bbl. The decline was triggered by reduced fears of immediate supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, overshadowing earlier concerns about Venezuela.
- Natural Gas: Prices are stabilizing/consolidating near $3.10, with traders defending support levels following larger-than-expected inventory withdrawals.
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Silver’s $93 Peak and the "Trump Pivot"
- The 7% Tumble: Silver prices briefly crashed more than 7% on Thursday, retreating from a historic all-time high of $93.75/oz. The trigger? President Trump announced he is holding off on new tariffs for critical minerals, including silver, lithium, and rare earths.
- Negotiation Over Confrontation: Instead of immediate levies, the White House is launching a 180-day negotiation window. The goal is to secure bilateral agreements with “selective friends” (like Australia, Japan, and Saudi Arabia) and potentially establish a “price floor” for imports to protect Western miners from Chinese price manipulation.
- The Section 232 Factor: This decision follows a months-long national security review. While the threat of a broad tariff remains a “loaded gun” if talks fail by July 13, 2026, the immediate “disruption premium” has been sucked out of the market.
- Structural Deficit Remains: Despite the price drop, the fundamental case for silver is still “bullish.” Demand from solar energy, EVs, and AI electronics continues to outpace mine supply, which is mostly a by-product of other metals and cannot easily ramp up.
- Silver vs. Gold: Silver has outpaced gold by nearly 150% over the last year, pushing the gold/silver ratio to just above 50—its lowest level since 2011. This “catch-up” trade has been one of the most profitable moves of 2025/26.
- Inventory Squeeze: Uncertainty has already caused a massive migration of silver from London vaults to US warehouses. This “physical drain” means that any return of tariff fears could trigger another violent short squeeze.
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