14/01/2026 Daily Reports
Dollar Defies Gravity as Yen Tests the Line
- Dollar’s Surprising Rebound: Despite a softer-than-expected US CPI (Core at 0.2% MoM vs. 0.3% consensus), the Greenback quickly recovered its losses. Markets are looking past the data “noise” and focusing on a potential “Hawkish Pivot” from Jerome Powell as he fights to prove his independence following the DOJ’s criminal probe.
- The “Vindicated Powell” Trade: Investors believe the political attacks on the Fed might actually backfire for dollar-bears; a “cornered” Powell may now be even more determined to keep rates high to demonstrate he isn’t being bullied by the White House.
- Yen in the “Danger Zone”: USD/JPY touched 159.40 today. With 160.00 in sight, the market is playing a high-stakes game of chicken with the Bank of Japan. While Tokyo has been silent so far, history suggests intervention becomes a “when, not if” scenario once we cross 160.
- Greenland Diplomacy: A high-level US delegation (including JD Vance and Marco Rubio) is meeting Danish and Greenlandic officials today. While the White House has previously used aggressive “ownership” rhetoric, markets are hoping for a shift toward economic partnership, which could remove a significant “Black Swan” risk for the Euro.
- Tariff Ruling Looms: The Supreme Court could release its decision on Trump’s emergency tariff powers today. A ruling against the President is expected, but analysts warn the administration is already prepared to pivot to alternative legal routes to keep the levies in place.
- Sector Highlights: While headline inflation cooled, goods prices remain remarkably soft, suggesting that US retailers are absorbing tariff costs by squeezing their own profit margins rather than passing them on to consumers.
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Asian Stocks Hit Records as Nikkei Surges, While Global Markets Turn Cautious Ahead of U.S. Inflation Data
- Concerns over U.S. Federal Reserve independence and a criminal probe into the Fed Chair have been reported, influencing uncertainty in markets and safe-haven demand.
- Early election speculation in Japan and a weaker yen were noted as supportive for Japanese equities.
- Asian stocks including Nikkei surged and Nikkei hit record highs, driven by strong gains in Japan and broader Asia-Pacific markets. Growth was supported by expectations of fiscal stimulus and strong earnings momentum.
- European stock futures (including DAX) showed mixed to modest movements, while markets awaited U.S. inflation data and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge release.
- U.S. major indices including Nasdaq traded with slight declines recently according to live market data, with Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 modestly lower in recent sessions.
- Brent crude prices trading around current levels with small fluctuations, recently saw movements on geopolitical supply concerns after developments in Venezuela contributed to supply risk fears.
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