04/12/2025 Daily Reports
Fed Cut Bets and Calmer JGBs Lift Nasdaq & Nikkei as Oil Climbs, Gas Diverges and Gold Eases Off Highs
- U.S. equities closed higher on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq supported by softer ADP private payrolls and a steady ISM services print that kept expectations elevated for a Fed rate cut next week.
- Tech gains were capped by Microsoft, whose shares fell about 2.5% after headlines suggested AI software sales quotas were cut on missed targets, even as the company disputed the report.
- In Europe, broad equity indices were little changed: the STOXX 600 added just 0.08%, while Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 slipped around 0.1%.
- Sentiment was brighter in Spain, where the IBEX outperformed after Inditex surged nearly 9% on strong November and Black Friday sales growth
- Japan’s Nikkei outperformed global peers, jumping about 2.2% as a very strong 30-year JGB auction soothed nerves after recent long-end bond volatility and pulled yields lower.
- Automation and tech names led the rally, with Fanuc up nearly 12% and double-digit gains in Yaskawa Electric and Renesas Electronics underscoring the index’s cyclical and tech leverage.
- In commodities, Brent crude extended its recent advance to around $63 per barrel, adding to Wednesday’s 0.4% rise as traders weighed the risk of supply disruptions from U.S.–Venezuela tensions against the potential demand impact of a possible Ukraine ceasefire.
- Natural gas showed a split picture: U.S. benchmark Henry Hub prices climbed over the latest reported week on cooler weather, while some Northeast hubs now trade above $5 per MMBtu and Permian prices lag on regional constraints;
Account Opening
Open A Live Account
CDO has wide range of tools, professional and friendly support for clients to achieve their financial markets trading goals. Open a live account now to enjoy this experience with virtual deposit.
Forex Mobile & Desktop App
CDO TRADER
CDO TRADER, our cutting-edge trading platform, follows the technology from the forefront with new features added continuously. Moreover, CDO TRADER is now available for Android and iOS! So it allows you to trade on the go!
Silver’s Gravity Check: Profit Taking Hits After a Historic Run
The Pullback
- Breather at the Top: After an unstoppable 8-day winning streak that pushed prices to a record $58.98, Silver has cooled off, dropping roughly 3.2%.
- Overbought Signal: The 14-day RSI screamed “overheated,” triggering a wave of profit-taking as traders cash in on the historic rally.
The Macro Backdrop
- Year of the Metals: Silver has roughly doubled in value this year, outperforming Gold (+60%). Both metals are on track for their best annual performance since 1979.
- Fed Fuel: Weak ADP payroll data has cemented expectations for a Fed rate cut next week (Dec 9-10), keeping the fundamental tailwind alive for non-yielding assets.
The “Blow-Off Top” Risk
- Liquidity Vacuum: The inclusion of silver on the US “critical mineral” list has sparked tariff fears, driving inventory into Comex warehouses and drying up liquidity elsewhere.
- Retail Frenzy: High volume in ETF options (calls & puts) suggests retail investors are chasing the rally. Strategists warn this structure is favorable for a “blow-off top”—a sharp final rally followed by a steep drop.
