• USD Dips on Truce Optimism
Hopes for a Russia-Ukraine truce, reportedly brokered by President Trump, have softened the dollar as geopolitical tensions ease and oil prices fall.
• EUR Gains as Peace Talks Heat Up
The euro is riding the wave of optimism, with EUR/USD and EUR/CHF poised to benefit the most if a truce materializes. The narrative shift is clear: less fear, more euro.
• CHF Weakens Amid Trade Setbacks
The Swiss franc remains under pressure after failed trade negotiations between the US and Switzerland. Pharma tariffs loom as the next potential drag.
• BoE Rate Cut on the Way
The Bank of England is expected to cut rates by 25bps today. The pound’s reaction will depend more on vote splits and tone than the decision itself.
• GBP Outlook Still Constructive vs USD
Despite rate cuts, GBP/USD may stay strong, especially if geopolitical risks fade in Europe and fiscal policies remain steady. 1.35 is back on the radar for Q4.
• India Tariff Drama Boosts USD/INR Volatility
US tariff hikes targeting India over its Russia ties put 88.0 as the next big level in USD/INR. The RBI held rates, likely to defend the currency.
• Fed Leadership Saga Continues
Trump may delay naming a new Fed Chair. Kevin Hassett remains the frontrunner—his dovish stance is seen as negative for the dollar. Fed communication suggests a dovish tilt at Jackson Hole later this month.

• What’s Next?
Markets are clearly betting on diplomacy this week—and the FX space is reacting swiftly. The dollar’s decline signals that investors are rotating out of safe havens, favoring currencies like the euro and pound instead. But let’s not forget: peace talks are never linear. One headline can undo this optimism.