3/11/2025 Daily Reports
Global markets are mixed as a hawkish Fed tone and a U.S.–China trade truce pull sentiment in opposite directions.
- Global risk sentiment is divided between a stronger U.S. dollar, which is driven by hawkish Fed messaging, and increased optimism following the one-year U.S.–China trade truce. Recent Fed commentary has lowered expectations of an early rate cut, keeping Treasury yields high and dampening demand for equities. The dollar’s strength reflects this more cautious monetary stance, even as Asian markets gain some relief from trade progress.
- In the US, Nasdaq futures remain heavily influenced by AI momentum, with Nvidia and its ecosystem continuing to dictate the direction of travel. Investors are focusing on semiconductor and tech earnings. Upbeat results or stronger AI demand forecasts could extend gains, while any disappointment would likely trigger short-term pullbacks.
- European markets opened slightly higher, but remain fragile. DAX performance hinges on eurozone macro data, the tone of the ECB and regional political headlines, all of which could cause sharp intraday volatility.
- In Asia, Tokyo’s markets are closed for Culture Day, resulting in lighter regional liquidity. The yen’s weakness and higher Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields are key factors to consider when trading resumes. Overall, markets are balancing optimism over global trade developments with caution regarding central bank signals and the ongoing disruption to U.S. data releases due to the government shutdown.
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