26/09/2025 Daily Reports
US stocks are facing challenges due to new tariffs and higher interest rates, before an important report on inflation. Meanwhile, Japan's pharmaceutical industry is struggling due to concerns about trade wars.
- The global markets are facing higher risks today because of policies and inflation. In the U.S., investors are focusing on the PCE inflation report (the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation), which is expected to temper expectations of aggressive rate cuts. The market is also dealing with a big increase in trade tensions after President Trump announced new, high import taxes. These will be put into effect on 1 October and include a 100% tax on branded drugs and high taxes on kitchen cabinets and furniture. This sudden increase in energy costs is causing fears of higher prices, and is having a direct effect on healthcare and supply chain stocks. This has made it hard for technology stocks that are sensitive to interest rates.
- The DAX in Europe is also affected by these developments. Germany’s latest Ifo Business Climate Index fell unexpectedly in September, which is not good news for the economy. The possibility of new U.S. drug tariffs is putting pressure on European pharmaceutical and healthcare stocks right away.
- In Asia, the Tokyo core CPI was 2.5% in September, which means the Bank of Japan is still talking about how to change its policies. However, trade is the main issue, with Asian stocks, especially Japanese pharmaceuticals, falling after the U.S. announced its new tariffs. The yen is weak and trading near the level of ¥149–150, which is seen as a psychological threshold. This is good for Japanese exporters. But the strength of the dollar and rising global interest rates are making financial conditions tighter across all markets.
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Metals Rising, Gas Building, Crops Forecasting — A Global Commodities Snapshot
- Gold & Silver Surge
- Gold near record highs, +43% YTD
- Silver > $45/oz (highest since 2011)
- Supported by weaker dollar, central bank buying & ETF inflows (+12.8moz YTD)
- Copper Market Tightens
- China to restrict new smelter projects (fees at record lows)
- Freeport Indonesia mine halted, ore supply pressured
- Peru’s Antamina mine expansion could lift output to 450kt by 2026
- Energy Updates
- Russian Black Sea oil ports resume after drone attacks
- ARA inventories +68kt WoW → gasoline & gasoil up, fuel oil & naphtha down
- Singapore stocks −2.6m bbl (residual fuel drives drop)
- US gas storage +75Bcf (slightly above expectations), total 3.51Tcf (+6.1% vs 5yr avg)
- Agriculture Outlook
- EU grain output 2025/26 forecast: 284.2mt (+19% YoY soft wheat)
- US corn & wheat exports beat estimates, soybeans weaker
- Arabica coffee up on declining ICE stocks (580k bags, lowest since Mar 2024)
- Russia wheat production revised up to 87.5mt, exports to 44.1mt
What’s Next?
- The rally in gold and silver underlines investors’ search for safety amid geopolitical uncertainty and macro volatility. But the real intrigue lies in industrial metals like copper — supply pressures there could lead to even bigger surprises. While precious metals benefit from rate cut hopes, energy and agriculture markets remain highly susceptible to geopolitical and supply-side shocks.
