Global risk appetite has weakened at the start of the week, with sharp selling across Asian equities, continued pressure on technology stocks and investors reducing exposure ahead of several major market catalysts.

The combination of US Treasury yields, PCE inflation, Jackson Hole, oil prices and Nvidia earnings is likely to determine the direction of global markets during the week of August 24–28.

While losses in US equity futures remain relatively contained, the underperformance of the Nasdaq suggests that profit-taking in technology stocks could continue ahead of Nvidia’s earnings announcement.

1. US Treasury Market Remains the Main Global Risk

The most important indicators to watch this week will be the US 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields.

The 30-year yield has moved toward its highest levels since 2007. The Treasury’s decision to increase long-term bond buybacks to approximately $4 billion per operation provided some temporary relief, but it has not created a lasting decline in yields.

The key issue is no longer liquidity alone.

Markets are simultaneously pricing:

• A large US budget deficit,
• Public debt exceeding $40 trillion,
• Rising interest expenses,
• Higher oil prices,
• Renewed inflation risks.

This creates an important transmission mechanism for global markets:

Higher Treasury yields → Higher discount rates → Pressure on technology stocks → Nasdaq weakness → Pressure on emerging markets

As a result, the direction of US long-term yields will remain one of the clearest barometers of global risk appetite this week.

2. Jackson Hole Could Be the Week’s Turning Point

The Jackson Hole meetings on August 27–29 will be one of the most important events of the week, with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech on Friday, August 28 expected to attract particular attention.

Markets will primarily be looking for an answer to one question:

What will the Fed do with interest rates in September?

However, another issue may be even more important:

How does the Fed view the recent rise in long-term Treasury yields?

Dovish Warsh Scenario

If Warsh emphasizes:

• Declining inflation,
• Weakening labor-market conditions,
• Slower economic growth,
• The possibility of an interest-rate cut,

the market reaction could be:

Treasury yields lower / Dollar lower / Nasdaq higher / S&P 500 higher / Gold higher / Emerging markets higher

Hawkish Warsh Scenario

If Warsh emphasizes:

• Inflation remaining too high,
• Risks created by higher oil prices,
• The need to avoid rushing into rate cuts,
• The Fed’s independence in setting monetary policy,

the likely reaction would be:

Treasury yields higher / Dollar higher / Nasdaq lower / Pressure on gold / Emerging markets lower

The importance of Jackson Hole has increased further following the Treasury’s recent intervention in the long-term bond market.

A notable divergence is developing between the Treasury’s efforts to ease long-term yields and the Fed’s preference to allow greater room for market pricing.

3. PCE Inflation: The Second Major Test

The PCE inflation report due on August 26 could set the tone for markets before Jackson Hole.

Headline PCE will be important, but investors should pay particularly close attention to:

• Core PCE

• Services inflation

Higher oil prices could lift headline inflation, but the Fed’s main concern will be whether underlying inflation pressures excluding energy remain persistent.

Below-Expected PCE

Treasury yields lower → Dollar lower → Gold higher → Nasdaq higher

This scenario would strengthen expectations for easier Fed policy.

Above-Expected PCE

Treasury yields higher → Dollar higher → Gold lower → Nasdaq lower

A stronger inflation reading would reduce the Fed’s policy flexibility and could increase volatility across global markets.

The period between August 26 and August 28 may therefore be particularly volatile.

4. Nvidia: More Than Just an Earnings Report

Nvidia reports earnings on August 26, and the announcement could have implications far beyond the company itself.

Markets are expecting revenue of approximately $92 billion and adjusted earnings per share above $2.

Because Nvidia makes a significant contribution to S&P 500 earnings growth, the results could influence:

• Nasdaq,
• Semiconductor stocks,
• Microsoft,
• Amazon,
• Alphabet,
• Broadcom,
• AMD,
• Asian technology equities.

However, a strong earnings result alone may no longer be enough.

Markets will likely require three things:

1. Revenue above expectations,
2. Stronger forward guidance,
3. Clear confirmation that AI investment remains robust.

Expectations are already extremely high.

The options market is pricing an approximately 6% two-way move following the earnings announcement.

Therefore:

Very strong earnings + strong guidance → Strongly positive for Nasdaq

but

Good earnings + disappointing forward guidance → “Sell the news” risk

Nvidia could therefore add another layer of volatility to an already event-heavy week.

5. Oil Is Becoming a New Inflation Risk

Oil remains one of the most important risks for global markets.

Brent closed Friday around $94.39, while WTI finished near $87.06. Brent recorded a weekly gain of approximately 6.4%.

Sanction threats against countries supporting Iran continue to increase concerns over global supply.

The critical level for Brent is now:

$95

A sustained move above $95 could cause markets to ask whether oil is once again creating a persistent inflation problem.

This would make the Fed’s job more difficult.

$100

The $100 level would carry much greater psychological and macroeconomic significance.

A simplified framework can be viewed as:

• $80: Manageable

• $90: Attention required

• $95: Significant inflation risk

• $100+: Serious challenge for the Fed

For the moment, pullbacks in oil should be viewed more as profit-taking than a confirmed reversal in the underlying trend.

Iran-related sanctions and the situation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remain the key geopolitical drivers.

6. Gold Faces a Two-Sided Market

The outlook for gold remains constructive, but the market faces competing forces.

Positive Factors

Gold continues to benefit from:

• US fiscal risks,
• Stress in Treasury markets,
• Geopolitical uncertainty,
• Fed rate-cut expectations,
• Central-bank demand.

Negative Factors

The main risk would be a simultaneous rise in:

US Treasury yields + Dollar

This combination could create significant short-term pressure on precious metals.

The key relationship to monitor is therefore:

US 10Y lower + DXY lower → Strongly positive for gold

US 10Y higher + DXY higher → Negative for gold

Geopolitical risks alone are unlikely to determine the direction of gold this week. Treasury yields and the dollar will remain equally important.

7. European Markets: Selective Opportunities

European markets could also face pressure if rising US Treasury yields push European bond yields higher.

A rise in the German 10-year yield would create a more challenging environment for European equities.

However, Europe retains one relative advantage compared with the United States:

The ECB may have greater room to remain dovish than the Fed.

If US yields stabilize, European sectors that could potentially outperform include:

• Banking,
• Industrials,
• Defence,
• Energy.

Persistently high oil prices would support energy companies but would simultaneously increase cost pressures on consumer and industrial companies.

As a result, the European market outlook remains selective rather than broadly bullish.

8. Asian Markets: Two Different Stories

Asian markets face different dynamics across Japan and China.

Japan

Rising US long-term yields remain particularly important for Japan.

If higher Japanese bond yields combine with expectations of further Bank of Japan normalization, pressure on global carry trades could increase.

The key risk mechanism is:

JPY strengthening → Carry-trade unwinding → Selling in global risk assets

This relationship should be closely monitored.

China

Higher oil prices are negative for China because of rising energy costs.

On the other hand, technology-sector optimism and expectations of additional economic stimulus could continue to provide support to Chinese equities.

Global Market Risk Map: August 24–28

Main Scenario for August 24–28

Markets are likely to remain in a waiting mode during the first half of the week.

The first major turning point comes on August 26 with PCE inflation and Nvidia earnings, followed by Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech on August 28.

Three scenarios stand out.

Scenario 1 — Risk Appetite Improves

Low PCE + Dovish Warsh + Strong Nvidia

Potential market reaction:

• US Treasury yields fall,
• Nasdaq rises,
• S&P 500 strengthens,
• Dollar weakens,
• Gold and silver rise,
• Emerging markets receive support.

Probability: 35%

Scenario 2 — Volatile / Sideways Market

PCE near expectations + No clear Warsh signal + Good Nvidia results but extremely high expectations

Potential reaction:

• Treasury yields remain elevated,
• Nasdaq trades with high volatility,
• Dollar remains broadly sideways,
• Gold stays firm,
• Oil remains elevated,
• Emerging markets show selective performance.

Probability: 40%

Scenario 3 — Global Risk-Off

High PCE + Hawkish Warsh + Nvidia disappoints + Brent moves toward $95–100

Potential reaction:

• US 10Y and 30Y yields rise,
• Dollar strengthens,
• Nasdaq sells off,
• Gold initially comes under pressure from higher rates,
• Emerging markets weaken,
• High-beta equities face increased selling pressure.

Probability: 25%

Five Indicators to Watch This Week

The five most important indicators for global markets are:

1. US 10-year Treasury yield
2. US 30-year Treasury yield
3. Brent oil
4. DXY Dollar Index
5. Nasdaq / Nvidia

When these indicators move in the same direction, the overall character of global markets can change quickly.

A combination of:

US 10Y ↓ + Brent ↓ + DXY ↓

would represent a strong risk-on signal for global equities.

In contrast:

US 10Y ↑ + Brent ↑ + DXY ↑

would be a significant risk-off signal.

Overall

This week will not be determined by the Fed alone.

The main macroeconomic triangle is:

Fed + Treasury yields + Oil

Nvidia adds an additional technology-specific volatility factor on top of this framework.

With Treasury-market stress still unresolved ahead of Jackson Hole, the week should be viewed as a high-volatility environment where confirmation may be more important than aggressive risk-taking.

2. OVERSEAS MARKETS — COMMODITIES ANALYSIS

The main themes for commodities during the week of August 24 are:

• Geopolitical risks supporting energy prices,
• Treasury-yield volatility influencing precious metals,
• Supply constraints supporting copper and selected agricultural commodities.

Oil and Natural Gas

Oil: Positive but Highly Volatile

The overall oil outlook remains positive, although volatility is elevated.

The lack of a clear normalization regarding the Strait of Hormuz and tighter sanctions against Iran continue to preserve a geopolitical supply-risk premium.

Recent pullbacks should therefore be viewed as profit-taking rather than a clear reversal of the broader trend.

A new round of sanctions or negative developments surrounding passage through the Strait of Hormuz could quickly push prices higher again.

Outlook: Positive / High volatility

Natural Gas: Sideways and Volatile

Natural gas does not currently have a story as strong as oil.

High production and inventories are limiting the upside, while weather forecasts supporting demand are preventing selling pressure from becoming significantly stronger.

Outlook: Neutral / Sideways

Gold and Silver

Risk aversion and volatility in Treasury markets continue to provide support for precious metals.

At the same time, the absence of a strong dollar rally remains constructive for gold.

The main catalysts in the coming days will be PCE inflation and Jackson Hole.

Positive Catalysts

• PCE below expectations,
• More dovish Fed messaging,
• Lower Treasury yields,
• Weaker dollar.

Negative Catalyst

• Higher-than-expected PCE combined with rising rate expectations.

Gold’s broader upward trend remains intact, while silver may retain greater upside potential with significantly higher volatility.

Gold currently represents the more defensive asset, while silver offers a higher-risk / higher-return profile.

Gold Outlook: Positive

Silver Outlook: Positive / Higher volatility

Copper: One of the Strongest Fundamental Stories

Copper currently has one of the strongest technical and fundamental stories within the commodity complex.

Falling inventories and production problems in Chile are tightening the supply side.

This supports copper not only from a short-term speculative perspective but also fundamentally.

Copper prices also remain an important indicator of global industrial demand.

The primary trend remains positive, although profit-taking following rapid advances would be normal.

Outlook: Positive

Main Risk: Weaker Chinese demand or a stronger US dollar

Platinum, Palladium and Aluminium

Platinum

Dollar weakness remains supportive.

However, platinum should not be evaluated solely through the currency channel. Automotive demand, catalyst usage and supply conditions also remain important.

Among the two major auto-related precious metals, platinum currently appears relatively more balanced.

Outlook: Positive

Palladium

Palladium also benefits from dollar weakness, but its structure remains more volatile and sensitive to automotive-sector demand.

Outlook: Positive / Volatile

Aluminium

Reduced concerns surrounding Chinese supply are limiting the upside potential.

The recent recovery should currently be viewed more as a technical rebound than the beginning of a strong new trend.

Outlook: Neutral / Sideways

Agricultural Commodities

Soybeans

Concerns surrounding the US crop and Chinese demand have supported prices.

Recent profit-taking is not unusual following the previous advance.

China’s demand for US soybeans will remain a key factor.

Medium-Term Outlook: Positive / Volatile

Wheat

Black Sea export conditions remain important for global wheat prices.

The recent pullback following the rally appears more consistent with profit-taking than a major trend reversal.

Outlook: Neutral / Positive

Coffee

Negative expectations surrounding Brazil’s harvest continue to limit downside risk.

The underlying fundamental story has therefore not completely weakened.

Outlook: Balanced / Slightly Positive

Cotton

The decline in the share of high-quality crops and weather-related risks are supporting prices.

Compared with several other agricultural commodities, the recent upside in cotton has a relatively stronger fundamental justification.

Outlook: Positive

Sugar

Expectations of declining global supply remain supportive, although profit-taking has followed the previous rally.

Outlook: Neutral / Positive

Cocoa

Concerns surrounding West African supply continue to support cocoa.

However, cocoa remains an extremely volatile market and sharp short-term corrections would not be unusual.

Outlook: Positive / High Risk

Corn

Higher oil prices and tighter supply conditions previously supported corn.

The recent selling does not currently appear to represent a major deterioration in the underlying trend.

Outlook: Neutral / Positive

General Commodity Outlook: August 24–28

Key Takeaway

The most important common theme for commodities this week is:

Fed + PCE + Jackson Hole

If Treasury yields decline and the dollar weakens, gold, silver and copper could strengthen simultaneously.

On the other hand, hawkish Fed communication combined with rising Treasury yields could trigger sharp short-term profit-taking in precious metals.

Oil follows a somewhat different framework.

Its primary driver remains the:

Iran + Strait of Hormuz + Sanctions

triangle rather than Fed policy alone.

Overall, markets are entering one of the most event-heavy periods of the month. Investors will need to monitor the interaction between monetary policy, Treasury yields, energy prices and technology-sector earnings, rather than focusing on any single catalyst.