24/04/2026 Daily Reports
The market mood is unequivocally cautious as we head into the weekend. The geopolitical impasse in the Middle East is no longer a “potential” risk—it is a physical reality with the Strait of Hormuz effectively locked down. This supply-side shock is feeding directly into inflationary pressures, forcing investors to abandon pro-risk, dollar-negative strategies.
Here is the breakdown of today’s market landscape:
- USD: The Flight to Yield
- Oil Shock Reality: With the Strait of Hormuz shut, Brent crude has little room to fall back toward $80. The market is pricing in a sustained energy shock, keeping short-dated yields firm as central banks are pushed into a defensive stance.
- Inflation Expectations: All eyes are on the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey. With inflation expectations at a multi-month high (3.4%), any upward revision today could trigger a hawkish shift in FOMC expectations.
- Technical Outlook: The DXY is showing a clear bias toward the 99.15–99.20 zone, with room to extend toward 99.50 if the inflation narrative worsens.
- EUR: Pressured by Costs
- Input-Output Lag: Signs are emerging that businesses are successfully passing higher energy costs on to consumers, fueling inflation. This is creating a “heavy” atmosphere for the Euro.
- ECB Policy Gap: Two-year real interest rate differentials are failing to provide a tailwind for the pair. While markets are underpricing a June rate hike, even correcting this might not be enough to save the Euro if the broader growth outlook stays bleak.
- Ifo Focus: Watch the German Ifo data today. A drop below the 85.0 level in expectations would be a significant market mover, likely confirming the “stagflationary” fears currently gripping the region.
What’s Next?
We are seeing a classic “stagflationary” setup where the market is finally waking up to the supply-side reality of the energy blockade. For weeks, investors clung to the hope that this was a temporary, diplomatic glitch. The fact that the Strait of Hormuz remains shut is forcing a painful re-pricing of assets.
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- The Nasdaq Composite closed 0.9% lower at 24,438.50 as geopolitical uncertainties offset corporate earnings. However, technology futures advanced 0.6%, driven by a 25% premarket surge in Intel Corporation following a strong sales forecast. The semiconductor sector showed resilience amid artificial intelligence demand, though the broader index faced pressure from rising global energy costs and stalled diplomatic negotiations in the Middle East.
- In European markets, regional equities experienced downward pressure, with the Stoxx Europe 600 falling 1%. The German market saw mixed results; SAP SE shares climbed 5.1% following positive earnings, but automotive and retail sectors faced steep declines. Investors remain cautious regarding the prolonged economic impact of the Middle East conflict and elevated energy prices on European consumer sentiment and heavy industrial operations.
- Japan’s Nikkei 225 index advanced by 0.9% to trade above the 59,340 level, reversing early regional losses. The benchmark gained ground following new domestic data showing Japan’s core inflation accelerated to 1.8% in March, marking the first increase in five months. Market activity in Tokyo remains heavily influenced by energy security concerns related to the Middle East, though the index successfully maintained its positive momentum.
- Brent crude oil futures advanced for a fifth consecutive day, climbing nearly 2% to trade above $107 per barrel. The price increase is directly tied to stalled peace negotiations between the United States and Iran, alongside the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz. While the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon was extended, the US naval blockade on Iranian ports remains fully active, sustaining severe disruptions to global energy shipments.
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Global markets adopted a risk-off tone on Friday as escalating tensions in the Middle East underscored the fragility of the situation. Iran’s continued control over the Strait of Hormuz—highlighted by reports of vessel seizures and military activity—has reinforced fears that the conflict is far from resolution. Donald Trump further heightened tensions by ordering aggressive naval action against Iranian operations in the region, signaling a hardening U.S. stance. With the conflict now stretching into its second month and negotiations stalled, investors remain caught between hopes for de-escalation and concerns of a prolonged disruption. Meanwhile, Brent Crude Futures have surged past $100 per barrel, reflecting ongoing supply risks as the critical shipping route remains effectively closed.
Despite relatively resilient corporate earnings so far, rising energy costs and geopolitical uncertainty are beginning to cloud the outlook. In the UK, upcoming retail sales data and weakening consumer sentiment point to growing economic strain, with inflation expectations climbing sharply. Currency markets are also in focus, as the Japanese yen hovers near intervention levels, prompting renewed warnings from Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama. At the same time, technological developments continue to capture attention, with Chinese startup DeepSeek previewing an upgraded AI model, highlighting that innovation remains a parallel driver of market interest even amid geopolitical stress.
