23/12/2025 Daily Reports
U.S. stock futures were little changed on Tuesday following a solid start to the shortened holiday trading week. Gains on Wall Street were led by technology shares, with major indexes posting moderate advances in the prior session. AI-related stocks remained in focus as optimism around chip demand supported sentiment, helping futures hold near record levels despite lower overall trading volumes.
Attention is now turning to upcoming macroeconomic releases, including revised third-quarter GDP figures and updated PCE inflation data, which could shape expectations for the policy outlook. With markets set to close early on Wednesday and remain shut on Thursday for the Christmas holiday, activity is expected to thin further, potentially amplifying reactions to incoming data in an otherwise quiet trading environment.
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Historic Performance (Best Since 1979)
- The Numbers: Monday saw a massive surge across the board. Gold crossed $4,450/oz (+67% YTD), Silver neared $69/oz (+130% YTD), and Copper hit a record ~$12,000/ton.
- The Milestones: Both Gold and Silver are on track for their best annual performance since 1979. Copper is seeing its best return since the Great Financial Crisis.
The Macro Cocktail: “The Debasement Trade”
- Fed Pivot: Traders are pricing in more rate cuts for 2026 (54% chance of a cut by March). Lower rates boost non-yielding assets like bullion.
- Currency Fears: Analysts note a rise in the “debasement trade”—investors fleeing fiat currency due to rising global deficits and seeking safety in hard assets.
- Central Banks: Relentless buying by global central banks remains a primary floor for gold prices.
The “AI Trade” Pivot
- Beyond Nvidia: Investors looking for AI exposure outside of expensive tech stocks are flocking to physical metals.
- Infrastructure Needs: Silver and Copper are being aggressively bought as critical components for data centers, electrification, and solar energy. Silver is uniquely positioned as a “hybrid”—part safe haven, part industrial AI play.
Geopolitical Heat
- Safe Haven: New tensions regarding US-Venezuela oil shipping have reignited fear-based buying, pushing investors back into defensive positions.
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- Markets traded in thin, year-end liquidity on Dec 23, 2025, with attention centered on the delayed U.S. Q3 GDP release—postponed by the government shutdown backlog. In Asia, the Japanese yen strengthened after Japan delivered its strongest recent warning that it could intervene against “excessive” FX moves, alongside broader U.S. dollar softness.
- U.S. equities were mostly steady, with stock index futures largely flat as investors waited for the GDP print, following a recent tech-led rebound and subdued year-end volatility. Nvidia and AI export policy remained a focal point after U.S. Democratic lawmakers urged the Commerce Department to disclose review and approval details for potential Nvidia H200 sales to China under a revised framework (including a 25% fee) amid ongoing license review.
- In Europe, equities briefly touched a record high, led by healthcare after Novo Nordisk secured U.S. approval for a weight-loss pill; Germany’s benchmark was slightly higher early, while banks and luxury names weighed. Separately, China’s announcement of provisional duties on EU dairy imports added a fresh trade-tension overhang for European sentiment.
- Japan’s intervention messaging and the resulting yen moves were a major driver for Japanese assets in holiday-thinned trade, coming soon after the BOJ’s recent rate hike and a cautious stance on further tightening.
- On the energy and supply front, Norway reported November oil-and-gas production above forecast—relevant given its role as Europe’s largest natural-gas supplier. U.S. natural gas narratives continued to be shaped by weather-driven demand expectations and LNG export feedgas flows near record highs. Brent was steady to slightly lower after the prior session’s rise, balancing ample supply and softer demand against disruption risks linked to U.S. actions around Venezuelan shipments and ongoing Russia–Ukraine Black Sea attacks on infrastructure and tankers.
- Gold extended its surge to fresh records near $4,500/oz, supported by safe-haven demand amid U.S.–Venezuela tensions, expectations for U.S. rate cuts, and continued central-bank buying; silver also notched a new all-time high.
