• Fed stance: Despite recent softness, hawkish Fed members continue to push back against aggressive rate cut expectations. Powell’s speech today could reaffirm the cautious stance, limiting downside for the USD.
• Market sentiment: Short-term risks remain tilted against the dollar, but its resilience against weaker peers highlights its safe-haven appeal.
• EUR developments: Eurozone PMIs are expected to remain in expansion territory, but without a strong domestic catalyst, EUR/USD gains may stay gradual.
• CAD weakness: The Canadian dollar continues to lag, pressured by a soft labour market, trade uncertainty, and oil price vulnerability.
• BoC divergence: The Bank of Canada is on track for more cuts, possibly reaching 2% by year-end, widening policy divergence with the Fed.
• What’s Next?
The dollar’s ability to stay firm against both strong (EUR) and weak (CAD) counterparts signals that USD remains the anchor in G10 FX. Unless US data surprises sharply to the downside, the greenback is set to hold its dominance into year-end.

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U.S. futures are currently steady as markets eagerly anticipate the speech by Fed Chair Powell and the release of Micron’s earnings results. Gold has reached a new record high, while European and Japanese markets are showing mixed signals.
The financial markets of the United States are currently in a state of stagnation, with futures trading remaining consistent as investors await a speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and key economic data. It is anticipated that Powell’s remarks will offer further insight into the Fed’s dovish stance in the wake of last week’s interest rate reduction. Market sentiment is also being influenced by the release of flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data, a key early indicator of economic activity. The technology sector is currently focused on the imminent earnings report from Micron. This will provide an update on the health of the AI, memory and semiconductor industries. In the broader market, gold has reached a new record high, reflecting investor expectations for further Fed easing. A continued drop in oil prices is seen as a tailwind for growth stocks but a headwind for the energy sector.
In Europe, flash PMI data for Germany and the Eurozone are setting the tone for the trading day. While manufacturing appears to be stabilising, the services sector remains soft, creating a mixed picture for the region’s economic recovery. This data is being analysed in conjunction with the recent decline in oil prices, which has led to a reduction in input costs for businesses.
Meanwhile, the cash market in Tokyo is closed for a public holiday, but derivatives trading continues. The weaker yen, trading at around 147.8 against the dollar, is a supportive factor for Japanese exporters, and the market is displaying a mixed regional tone, with some Asian markets, such as Korea and Taiwan, showing strength due to AI-related optimism, while others remain softer.