Oil Holds Above $65 Despite Stalled Trump-Putin Call
• Oil markets remain rangebound as the much-anticipated Trump-Putin phone call delivered no real diplomatic progress.
• Trump hinted at possible Ukraine-Russia negotiations, yet Putin reiterated Russia’s position to address the “root causes”, showing no willingness to compromise.
• Markets worry that the US may step back from its mediator role, leaving the conflict in uncertain hands.
• Meanwhile, Iran nuclear deal negotiations face setbacks, as uranium enrichment remains a non-negotiable red line for Tehran.
• Chinese oil demand fell sharply in April:
• Refinery throughput: 14.2m b/d (↓5% MoM, ↓1.3% YoY)
• Apparent demand: 13.8m b/d (↓3.9% MoM, ↓5.3% YoY) – lowest since August
• US natural gas prices plunged 6.6%, pressured by strong storage builds and cooler weather outlooks in southern regions.

Metals – Aluminium Inventories Jump, Prices Slip
• LME aluminium inventories surged by 92,950 tonnes, now at 343,025 tonnes – the biggest single-day increase since May 2024.
• This increase stems from cancelled orders in Malaysia being reinstated into warehouse stock.
• Aluminium prices dropped by 1%, pulling other base metals lower, amid:
• Weak Chinese macro data
• Moody’s downgrade of US credit outlook
• On the supply side, China continues to dominate:
• April primary aluminium output: 3.75m tonnes (↑4.2% YoY)
• YTD production: 14.79m tonnes (↑3.4% YoY)

Agriculture – US Crop Progress Strong Ahead of 5-Year Averages
• Corn planting: 78% complete, compared to 62% last week and 73% 5-year average
• Soybean planting: 66% complete, well ahead of 5Y average (53%)
• Winter wheat rated 52% good-to-excellent, slightly down from last week (54%) but up YoY
• Expectations for larger acreage and good weather point to a potentially looser US corn market in the 2025/26 season
• Result: CBOT corn prices likely to remain under downward pressure

What’s Next?
Energy markets are caught between geopolitics and weak demand signals, metals face bearish sentiment from surging inventories, and agriculture is seeing strong momentum with early planting progress. Traders should monitor macroeconomic signals and weather developments closely in the coming weeks.