GLOBAL MARKETS

1. GLOBAL MARKETS OVERVIEW

Global markets remain shaped by three key themes: risk aversion, Fed uncertainty and geopolitical risk. The release of the latest FOMC minutes will be particularly important in determining whether recent market weakness is a temporary correction or the beginning of a broader risk-reduction move.

Global Market Outlook

1. Sharp Asian Sell-Offs Weigh on Global Risk Appetite

Japan’s Nikkei fell around 2.8%, while South Korea’s KOSPI lost nearly 6%. The sell-off was concentrated in semiconductor and AI-related stocks, highlighting profit-taking in highly valued technology names.

Two risks are converging:

• Rising US Treasury yields
• High valuations in AI and semiconductor stocks

Higher yields reduce the present value of future cash flows, putting additional pressure on high-growth technology stocks.

Technology remains the most vulnerable area of global markets in the short term.

2. Fed Minutes: The Key Market Catalyst

Three Fed members reportedly preferred a 25-basis-point rate hike at the July meeting, making the upcoming minutes particularly important.

Hawkish minutes could lead to:

• Dollar higher
• US Treasury yields higher
• Gold lower or range-bound
• Nasdaq lower
• S&P 500 lower
• Emerging markets under pressure

Technology stocks could see deeper selling if rate-cut expectations weaken.

Dovish minutes could lead to:

• Treasury yields lower
• Dollar lower
• Nasdaq higher
• Gold higher
• Emerging markets higher

The most important part of the minutes will be the guidance regarding the September rate decision.

3. UK Inflation: The Second Key Catalyst

UK annual CPI is expected to rise to 2.9%, with core inflation also important.

If:

CPI > 2.9%
Core CPI > 2.5%

the Bank of England could adopt a more cautious stance.

This could push:

• GBP higher
• UK bond yields higher
• Global bond yields higher

A softer-than-expected inflation reading, however, could provide some relief to global markets.

4. Oil: The Strait of Hormuz Remains the Main Risk

Oil has stabilized after its recent rise, but developments around the Strait of Hormuz remain more important than short-term price movements.

Continued tensions and attacks on vessels indicate that the geopolitical risk premium has not disappeared.

If Brent holds above $87–88, inflation risks could rise again, potentially weakening expectations for Fed rate cuts.

Higher oil prices therefore remain negative not only for global equities but also for monetary-policy expectations.

Key Scenario for the Next 1–3 Days

• Nasdaq: Negative — Treasury yields
• S&P 500: Negative/Neutral — Fed minutes
• Nikkei: Negative — Technology selling
• KOSPI: Very Negative — Semiconductors
• Dollar Index: Weak — Fed minutes
• Gold: Positive but cautious — Real yields
• Oil: Neutral to Positive — Strait of Hormuz
• US 10Y: Upside risk — Fed/inflation
• Emerging Markets: Under pressure — Dollar + yields
• BIST: Selective — Global risk appetite

Base Case

Global risk appetite is likely to remain weak in the short term. Further selling in the Nasdaq and semiconductor stocks over the next few sessions would not be surprising, although the current move should not yet be interpreted as the beginning of a major bear market.

The key variables are:

Fed minutes + US 10Y yield + Oil/Hormuz developments

If the Fed minutes are hawkish and Treasury yields continue rising, the correction in technology-heavy indices could deepen.

Conversely, dovish minutes, lower yields and moderate oil prices could turn the recent sell-off into a short-term profit-taking episode.

2. GLOBAL COMMODITIES OUTLOOK

As of 19 August 2026, the main theme across commodity markets is clear:

Geopolitical risk → Higher oil prices → Inflation and rate pressure → Precious-metal volatility → Selective strength in industrial and agricultural commodities

Uncertainty surrounding US-Iran developments means oil-market risks remain elevated. Brent recently traded near a three-week high at around $91.46, while WTI reached approximately $85.25.

1. Oil: The Main Driver of Commodity Markets

Outlook: POSITIVE / HIGH VOLATILITY

Oil prices are being driven more by the Strait of Hormuz and US-Iran relations than by technical factors.

Brent moving above $91 is important because the market is increasingly focused not only on whether the ceasefire will continue, but also on when oil flows through Hormuz will return to normal.

Key levels:

• Brent: Positive
• WTI: Positive
• Main support: $88–89
• Critical support: $85–86
• First resistance: $92–93
• Strong resistance: $95–96
• Psychological resistance: $100

A sustained move above $92–93 could open the way toward $95–96, while a further escalation in geopolitical risks could bring $100 into focus.

Conversely, concrete progress in US-Iran talks and normalization of Hormuz traffic could trigger a rapid decline toward $88–85.

Key takeaway: Sustained prices above $90 would keep inflationary pressure elevated, creating a negative environment for equities but a positive one for oil producers.

2. Copper: Short-Term Pressure from Higher Oil

Outlook: NEUTRAL / POSITIVE

Copper’s long-term fundamentals remain strong, supported by:

• Electrification
• Energy infrastructure
• AI data centers
• Supply constraints

However, oil above $90 increases inflation and interest-rate concerns, creating short-term pressure on copper.

The still-low copper/gold ratio also suggests that growth expectations remain weaker than gold’s performance would imply.

Bottom line: Pullbacks in copper should be monitored rather than assuming a sharp structural decline.

3. Platinum and Palladium

Platinum

Outlook: NEUTRAL

Platinum benefits from its precious-metal characteristics and support from gold, but remains exposed to concerns over automotive demand.

Platinum was trading around $1,717 on 19 August.

Palladium

Outlook: WEAK

Automotive demand remains a key factor for palladium. The transition toward electric vehicles and uncertainty surrounding catalytic-converter demand continue to limit its upside compared with gold and silver.

Palladium was trading around $1,287, leaving its short-term outlook weaker than platinum.

4. Agricultural Commodities

The agricultural complex currently looks somewhat more constructive than energy and metals.

Soybeans

Outlook: POSITIVE

Higher oil prices and strong demand are supportive. Biofuel demand provides an additional positive link between higher energy prices and soybeans.

Wheat

Outlook: POSITIVE

The Black Sea region and geopolitical developments remain key factors. Continued concerns over supply security could limit downside pressure in wheat.

Recent US agricultural data also highlight weather and supply concerns as important pricing drivers.

Corn

Outlook: POSITIVE

Higher oil prices are supportive through the energy and biofuel connection. Concerns surrounding US supply also provide additional support.

Coffee

Outlook: NEUTRAL / POSITIVE

After recent gains driven by supply concerns, some profit-taking is normal. A renewed rally would likely require fresh supply-side catalysts.

Sugar

Outlook: STRONGLY POSITIVE

Sugar is currently one of the more attractive agricultural commodities, with expectations of lower global supply providing support.

Cocoa

The dollar and inventory levels remain important drivers. The recent pullback following the rally appears more consistent with profit-taking than a confirmed trend reversal.

Cotton

Outlook: NEUTRAL / POSITIVE

Quality and yield concerns in the US and India remain supportive. However, further gains will likely require a new catalyst from the oil or dollar markets.

5. NATURAL GAS: WEAK COMPARED WITH OIL

Outlook: NEGATIVE / Rallies as Selling Opportunities

Unlike oil, the fundamental outlook for US natural gas remains weak.

Moderate weather forecasts, high production and comfortable inventories continue to pressure prices. Recent inventory increases also indicate that the supply-demand balance has not tightened significantly.

The more likely pattern remains:

Decline → Rebound → Renewed Selling

However, the outlook could change quickly if LNG export demand increases significantly or unexpectedly hot weather emerges across the US.

Bottom line: Oil remains positive, while natural gas remains negative.

6. GOLD: GEOPOLITICAL RISK VS. HIGHER RATES

Outlook: NEUTRAL / POSITIVE BIAS

Gold faces a key contradiction.

Normally, rising tensions with Iran would provide strong support for gold. However, higher oil prices are also increasing inflation expectations and pushing Treasury yields higher.

Gold is therefore currently:

Supported by geopolitical risk → Pressured by higher Treasury yields

On the morning of 19 August, spot gold was around $4,342, while silver was near $62.99. Markets are also awaiting the latest Fed minutes.

Key levels:

• Support: $4,300–4,320
• Major support: $4,250–4,280
• Resistance: $4,380–4,400
• Strong resistance: $4,450–4,500

A break above $4,400 could generate renewed bullish momentum.

However, if US 10-year Treasury yields continue rising, gold’s upside could remain limited.

Gold Outlook

Buyers are likely to re-emerge on gold pullbacks, but a break above $4,400 is needed for stronger trend confirmation.

Why Is Gold Not Reacting Strongly Despite a Weaker Dollar?

Gold trading around $4,350 remains notable.

Normally, a weaker Dollar Index should support gold, but several factors are limiting its upside:

• US Treasury yields remain elevated.
• Uncertainty over Fed rate cuts continues.
• The market may be taking profits.
• Geopolitical risk may already be heavily priced in.

Therefore, $4,350 remains an important near-term equilibrium zone.

For gold to regain stronger momentum, it is important not only for the dollar to weaken but also for US 10-year Treasury yields to decline.

7. SILVER: HIGHER RISK, HIGHER POTENTIAL

Silver is significantly more volatile than gold.

On 18 August, silver fell around 3.3% to close near $63.94, while it was trading around $63 on the morning of 19 August.

Key levels:

• Support: $62–63
• First recovery zone: $65–66
• Strong resistance: $68–70

Silver has several key drivers:

• Stronger gold prices are supportive.
• Stronger industrial metals are supportive.
• A weaker dollar is supportive.
• Higher interest rates are negative.

As a result, silver offers higher risk but also higher potential returns compared with gold.