19/08/2025 Daily Reports
Energy – Oil
• Oil prices are trading lower following Trump–Zelensky talks.
• Focus now shifts to a potential Zelensky–Putin meeting within two weeks — the first since the war began.
• Main sticking point: Russia demands full control of Donetsk and Luhansk, which Ukraine strongly rejects.
• Betting markets show only a 38% chance of a ceasefire by year-end, far from the 78% peak in March.
• US secondary tariffs on India’s Russian oil imports could kick in by 27 August, with trade talks delayed.
• Ukraine’s attack on Russia’s Druzhba pipeline disrupted crude flows to Hungary and Slovakia (~200k b/d).
Metals – Steel & Aluminium
• China’s steel output fell for the third straight month, hitting its lowest level of 2025.
• Government supply controls and weak property demand are weighing on production.
• Aluminium imports surged 38.2% YoY in July, while alumina exports soared 56.4% YoY.
Agriculture – Grains
• China’s corn imports plummeted 94.9% YoY in July, driven by high domestic supply and restrictions.
• Wheat imports fell 48.3% YoY, with cumulative imports down 76.4% for 2025.
• Russia’s wheat harvest forecast raised to 85.5mt, boosting export potential to 42.5mt for the 2025/26 season.
What’s Next?
• Markets are cautiously watching geopolitics, but the muted oil reaction suggests traders are skeptical of a quick breakthrough
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The US is looking to have the same number of shares in Intel as it has in S&P, which is AA+. There has also been an increase in housing starts.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that Washington could change the chip grants into a 10% share. This would help to make Intel more stable and increase the number of chips made in the U.S. He also said that this would not force companies to buy Intel chips.
• The government wants to get involved in the semiconductor industry.
• They are offering to give companies money in exchange for support.
• The S&P said the U.S. still has an AA+ rating. It said that money from tariffs helps to balance the country’s budget even though there are problems with trade wars.
• Housing in July, the number of single-family homes started went up by 2.8% to 939,000 SAAR. The number of permits went up by 0.5% to 870,000. This ended a four-month fall. A surge in apartments helped overall residential construction. This was happening at a time when high mortgage rates and uncertainty were affecting the market.
