- U.S. 30-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.32%, its highest level since mid-2007.
- U.S. 10-year yield rose to 4.72%, keeping pressure on global bond markets.
- Japan’s 10-year yield jumped to 2.94%, a fresh three-decade high.
- Brent crude rose above $91, extending its rally to a third straight day as Middle East supply risks intensified.
- The 60-day U.S.-Iran truce expired, while Tehran signalled a possible shift toward a “fully offensive” military posture.
- Asian equities lost their early gains: MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan fell 0.3%, while the Nikkei dropped 1.6%.
- S&P 500 futures slipped 0.2%, following Monday’s 0.5% decline in the S&P 500.
- Dollar Index edged up to 99.60, recovering from a two-month low.
- Gold fell 0.3% to $4,402.89, ending a two-day winning streak.
- Bitcoin declined 0.3% to around $64,160, while Ethereum fell to roughly $1,899.
What’s Next?
The key story is no longer just the Middle East. Sticky long-end yields, rising oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty are creating a much tougher environment for risk assets.
If the 10-year Treasury yield remains above 4.65% and oil stays above $90, I would expect continued pressure on equities, particularly high-duration tech, while the dollar and commodities could remain relatively supported.
The biggest risk for markets is that higher oil prices begin to revive inflation expectations just as investors are pricing in Fed easing. That combination could keep volatility elevated.

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- Nasdaq. US indices closed lower on Monday, with the Nasdaq Composite down 0.32%, the S&P 500 off 0.52% and the Dow shedding 273 points. Microsoft fell about 3% and Meta 3.5%, while chipmakers advanced after Anthropic reported $11.5bn in second-quarter revenue and was said to be meeting banks over a potential record IPO; Micron gained 4.1% and Sandisk 9%. Futures extended losses on Tuesday as the 30-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since 2007. Retail earnings from Home Depot, Lowe’s and Walmart are due this week.
- DAX. The index was little changed near 26,440 on Monday, holding close to the record high of 26,580 set earlier this month, before settling at 26,411. Infineon rose 2.1%, Siemens Energy 1.8% and Rheinmetall 1.3%, while Scout24, Zalando and Beiersdorf led declines. German July inflation was confirmed at a three-month high of 2.8%, wholesale price inflation accelerated to 5.3% year-on-year, and the 10-year Bund yield remains near a 15-year high.
- Nikkei. The Nikkei futures 225 fell 1.7% below 67800 on Tuesday, reversing part of Monday’s 0.61% gain. The 10-year JGB yield climbed to around 2.95%, a three-decade high, on fiscal concerns and expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike at the 17–18 September meeting. Second-quarter GDP expanded 1.1% annualised, below forecasts near 2%. Tokyo Electron dropped 2.9%, Nintendo 2.4% and Advantest 1.7%. Nvidia agreed to invest up to $105bn in SoftBank subsidiary SB Energy, which is developing an Ohio data centre for OpenAI. The yen traded near 159.5 per dollar.
- Gold. Bullion traded around $4,400 an ounce after gaining on softer US inflation, retail sales and consumer sentiment data, which cut market-implied odds of a September Fed rate hike to roughly one in three from nearly 50%. Central bank purchases, notably from China, continue. Investors await the FOMC minutes and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole address.
- Brent. Brent climbed above $91 a barrel on Tuesday, a third consecutive advance, after the June US–Iran memorandum of understanding expired on Monday and President Trump said he would not extend the interim deal. Iran and Oman continue talks on managing Strait of Hormuz traffic without US participation, while transit volumes through the waterway slowed sharply over the weekend.


