16/12/2025 Daily Reports
U.S. & Global Equities Global markets are trading cautiously as investors await delayed U.S. employment data, which is expected to show a softening labor market. In a significant structural move, Nasdaq plans to seek approval to extend trading hours to 23 hours a day starting in the second half of 2026.
Europe (DAX) European equities started the week on firmer ground, led by the banking sector. Markets are anticipating the upcoming ECB decision, with polls suggesting the deposit rate will remain unchanged at 2% through late 2026. Meanwhile, Germany’s 10-year yield recently touched a fresh nine-month high.
Japan (Nikkei) The Bank of Japan is reportedly set to raise interest rates to 0.75%—a 30-year high—signaling a cycle of gradual hikes. Economic data remains mixed, with manufacturing contracting at a slower pace while the services sector cools.
Commodities (Energy & Metals)
- Natural Gas: Futures dipped as mild weather forecasts reduced demand, with spot prices falling to $3,9/MMBtu amid record output.
- Oil: Brent crude dropped to approximately $60/bbl, driven by weak data from China and optimism regarding Russia-Ukraine peace talks, despite China accelerating its crude stockpiling.
Gold: Prices edged lower as investors remained hesitant ahead of the upcoming U.S. jobs and inflation data releases
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Energy – Oil under pressure
- Renewed optimism around a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire is weighing on oil prices.
- ICE Brent fell ~0.9%, settling at $60.56/bbl, its lowest close since May.
- President Trump stated that an agreement to end the war is “closer than ever,” following talks in Berlin — although territorial disputes remain unresolved.
- Despite sanctions, Russian seaborne exports remain resilient, but barrels are struggling to find buyers, leading to rising volumes of oil floating at sea.
- India’s imports of Russian crude are expected to fall sharply to ~800k b/d in December, down from ~1.9m b/d in November.
Refined products – Speculative unwind
- Refining margins surged in November amid sanction fears and Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries.
- The ICE gasoil crack peaked near $38/bbl, driven by heavy speculative positioning.
- Since late November, speculators have aggressively reduced long positions, pushing the crack back toward $23/bbl.
- Net long positions in ICE gasoil dropped to 58,578 lots, down from over 102,000 lots at the November peak.
Agriculture – Cocoa leads the sell-off
- Cocoa prices fell sharply, with the London market closing more than 7% lower.
- Strong cocoa arrivals at Ivory Coast ports pressured prices, with arrivals reaching ~895.5kt, slightly above last year’s level.
- The Ivory Coast government authorized the purchase of ~200kt of cocoa beans to support farmers amid falling prices.
- Lower global prices are increasing the risk of exporter defaults on forward contracts set at higher price levels.
Grains & Softs – Supply-driven weakness
- CBOT wheat extended losses for a second session, down ~1.6%, as supply prospects remain comfortable.
- Argentina’s wheat production is projected at a record 27.7mt for 2025/26, driven by higher acreage and improved yields.
- India’s sugar production surged 28% YoY, reaching 7.8mt between October and mid-December, supported by higher cane crushing and more active mills.
What’s Next?
Markets are clearly shifting from geopolitical risk pricing to supply reality pricing. In energy, easing war-risk premiums and the unwind of speculative positioning are exposing a fragile demand backdrop. Meanwhile, agricultural markets are reminding us that supply still matters most when weather risks fade.
