16/11/2022 Evening Reports
In the UK, consumer inflation increased by 11.1% on an annual basis in October, above the expectations of 10.7%. On a monthly basis, inflation increased by 2.0%. Core inflation and producer inflation also exceeded expectations in the country.
-Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Annual) Announced:6.5% Expected:6.4% Previous:6.5%
-Core CPI (Monthly) (Monthly) (Annual) Announced: 0.7% Expected: 0.6% Previous:0.6%
-Producer Price Index (PPI) Input (Annual) (Supplemented) Announced:19.2% Expected:18.0% Previous:20.8%
-Producer Price Index (PPI) Output (Annual) (Added) Announced:14.8% Expected:14.6% Previous:16.3%
The higher-than-market readings may put pressure on the Bank of England to continue raising interest rates. Sterling boosted intraday gains after warmer-than-expected consumer inflation figures in the UK. The statements of the Governor of the Bank of England Bailey may be important in the parity today at 17:15.
European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Ignazio Visco said Wednesday that the need to continue tightening is clear, but monetary policy decisions must be based on data and facts, without prior decisions on the course to be followed.
European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Luis de Guindos said in a statement, “I think the main risk for financial stability and growth right now is inflation at very high levels.” ECB Vice President also stated that the balance sheet reduction should be applied prudently, noting that they will start with passive quantitative tightening.
Kansas City Fed President Esther George said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal that it may not be possible to reduce inflation without causing a recession. George also noted that it would be logical for the Fed to slow the rate of increase in interest rates next year.
Retail Sales data were announced by the USA during the day.
– USA – Retail Sales (monthly): 1.3% (Previous: 0%)
– USA – Core Retail Sales (monthly): 1.3% (Previous: 0.1%)
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EURUSD – Continuing to Move to 233-Day Average…
After rising to the 233-day average yesterday, the EURUSD parity regressed with profit selling from this region, but still held at the 1.0275 support. As of today, we see that it has reacted correctly to the 233-day average again. Here, the continuation of the rises will depend on the upward break of the 233-day average. It may be technically premature to expect the continuation of the movements in favor of the Euro before this happens.
Attention to the Possibility of Weakening in Gold – Hourly Image!
While ounce of Gold is stuck at 1783 resistance, this horizontal situation has drawn candles towards the lower band of the ascending price channel, which we are looking at on an hourly basis, step by step. There is a weakness image in the short term and we are checking the lower band of the channel as the support line. If the lower band of the channel is broken, sales may be triggered and the 1747 level may come to the fore.
We will follow the 1783/1788 resistance line for possible reactions.
USDJPY – Horizontal Movements Continue After Hard Fall…
The yellow metal, which has been rising step by step within the rising price channel since the 1620 region, had slightly flattened its rise yesterday after touching the upper band of the channel. It started again in the European session today when the prices came to the middle of the channel on an hourly basis and reacted up to 1783.5. After pinning here, we see profit selling again and a slight weakening is observed in the right-angle trend. We will look at the supports inside the channel step by step, but if the 1756 support is broken, we can exit the channel and see a gradual correction of the 1622/1783 rise. While following the movements within the channel, we would like to remind you that this channel is hourly and should be watched frequently.
USDTRY – Continuing its Sideways Movement…
There has been no change in the dollar rate for about 8 weeks. While the USDTRY parity continues to be priced in the 18.70/18.25 range, the 8-week average is now flattened and has entered an 8-week sideways movement. If candles close below the 8-week average, it could be an indication for weakness. On the upside, we will be following the 18.61 resistance in terms of daily/weekly candle closes.
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