13/10/2022 Evening Reports
In the September inflation data announced in the USA, both headline and core inflation came in above expectations. Especially on the Core Inflation side, there is a strong monthly and annual increase, showing that inflation is sticky.
- USA – CPI (MoM) 0.4% (Previous: 0.1%)
- US – CPI (yoy): 8.2% (Previous: 8.3%)
- US – Core CPI (MoM) 0.6% (Previous: 0.6%)
- US – Core CPI (yoy): 6.6% (Previous: 6.3%)
As the upward pressure from inflation continues, the FED will continue to strengthen monetary tightening. This is reflected in the initial pricing. While the US Dollar is gaining value, Ounce Gold is declining. However, there are also strong decreases in US futures indices. The USDJPY pair instantly saw the level of 147.66.
While the 75 basis points interest rate hike of the FED in November was almost certain, 75 basis points were added to the interest rate hike probability at the December meeting (the main scenario was 50 basis points)
We will continue to monitor FOMC members and hear their thoughts after the data. Possible harshness in the rhetoric will affect the market.
- Another country whose inflation was monitored during the day was Germany. Germany’s annual headline inflation hit double digits, reaching 10%. It came in at 1.9% and high with monthly inflation.
USDJPY – US Inflation May Be At The Focus Of The Pair Today…
The upward trend in the parity continued until yesterday evening and reached the level of 147.00. After rising to this region, it is making small attempts at 146.70 support, which has become support. In this state, the pair is at the high levels it last saw in 1998. The rise in the pair has been cautious in recent days against the possibility of a possible intervention by the Japanese government, but exceeding the 1998 peak may bring the 150 region to the agenda.
Today, the strength of both us and, of course, the Japanese authorities will be in US inflation. If there is no deterioration in the uptrend in inflation, this could push the US 10-year bond yield back up and the rising scissors could increase the losses in the Yen. Here, our eyes will be on the news feed on what the Japanese authorities can do.
In general, as long as below 145.80 is not seen, we can foresee the continuation of the upward trend in the parity.
EUR/USD – Decreasing After Increasing Inflation…
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which was announced in the US for September, exceeded the expectations and increased by 0.4% monthly and 8.2% annually. Core CPI also came in better than expected, rising 0.6% and 6.6%, respectively. After the increasing inflation, there were expectations that the FED would raise interest rates by 100 basis points in November, and the EURUSD parity declined to 0.9631. In the continuation of the pullback, 0.9569 and 0.9500 can be viewed as support. In transactions in favor of the Euro, 0.9682 and 0.9735 may form resistance.
BRENT – Drops Moved to Day 4…
Brent Petroleum is falling with the expectations that the FED will increase interest rates by 100 basis points after the increasing inflation rates in the USA and the increase in API Crude Oil Stocks, which we followed last night. In the continuation of the decline, 90.53 and 87.90 can be viewed as support. On the upside, 92.78 and 95.81 may form resistance. Let us remind you that the official Crude Oil Stocks will be announced at 18:00 (GMT +3) today.
XAU/USD – 1649.30 Support Tested After US Inflation Data…
After the inflation rates, which we follow today, continued to increase in the USA, there were decreases until the 1649.30 support in Ounce Gold, with the expectation that the FED would continue the aggressive interest rate increase process. If this level is broken and below, 1629 and 1579.30 can be viewed as support. In case of holding above 1649.30 support, we can see recovery. In this case, 1660.30 and 1677 can form resistance.
GAU/TRY – Falling Towards 980.25 Support With FED Expectations…
There were decreases in Ounce Gold with the expectation that the FED will increase the interest rate by 100 basis points in the meeting to be held in November after the inflation rates in the USA increased. With the effect of the decreases in Ounce Gold, Gr Gold TL decreases. In the continuation of the decline, 980.25 and 968 can be viewed as support. On the upside, 990 and 996 may form resistance.
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