11/08/2025 Daily Reports
Oil
• Deadline Passes Without New Sanctions: Trump’s deadline for a Russia–Ukraine peace deal expired without tougher US sanctions, pushing Brent crude to its lowest level since early June.
• Trump–Putin Meeting in Focus: Market watches the upcoming meeting, though quick resolution seems unlikely due to territorial disputes.
• Speculator Positioning: Net long positions in ICE Brent reduced by 20,375 lots to 240,977, mainly due to long liquidation.
• US Rig Count: Increased by 1 to 411 rigs—the first rise since April.
Metals
• Gold Tariff Concerns: Gold futures surged after reports suggested 1-kilo gold bars could face US import tariffs.
• Futures Premium Widens: December futures premium over London spot prices hit the widest since the pandemic.
• White House Clarification Expected: Tariffs on gold bar imports may not be applied, pending official clarification.
Agriculture
• Ukraine Grain Exports Drop: 2025/26 season exports down 55% YoY to 2.1 million tonnes.
• Corn and Wheat Declines: Corn exports fell 62% YoY; wheat exports down 49% YoY.
• Russia’s Wheat Forecast Raised: 2025 soft wheat output forecast increased to 84.5 million tonnes, exports projected at 41.5 million tonnes.
• Bearish Speculator Sentiment: Net short positions in CBOT wheat and soybeans surged, with soybean shorts at the most bearish since December 2024.
What’s Next?
• The market mood feels like a tug-of-war between geopolitical headlines and core fundamentals. But across all three sectors, sentiment is leaning more bearish than bullish. The next major move could come from diplomacy… or from disappointment.
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Asian Shares Creep Up on Promising Earnings; Dollar and Bonds In Wait for US Inflation Data; Investors Indicate Overpriced Corp Credit
• Asian key stock indexes crept up on Monday, led by a promising corporate earnings season that is supporting high valuations in the tech sector. While Japan’s market was closed for a holiday, futures suggest a potential test of its record high later this week. The U.S. dollar steadied last week following a week of decline as the markets anticipate the pivotal U.S. CPI report during July, which is also expected to drive the direction of the dollar and bond markets.
• Much focus is on the August 12 deadline for a US-China trade deal, and chip policy in particular. An extended ceasefire is what experts are now looking at. A recent rumor shows that there has been negotiated a special agreement with the Trump administration, where semiconductor giants Nvidia and AMD have committed to placing 15% of their revenue from sales of some chips in China into US government coffers in return for export licenses.
• In another sector of the market, investors are growing more cautious about high-cost corporate debt. Global asset managers and big banks are warning that current credit valuations are based on a much more solid economic prognosis than the official outlook, leading many to take defensive action or actually bet against this portion of the market in anticipation of a likely correction.
