The U.S. entered its 15th government shutdown since 1981, the second under President Trump, triggering the largest federal workforce reduction in decades. More than 150,000 employees are set to exit payrolls this week, while agencies such as the FAA plan widespread furloughs. At the same time, new tariffs on heavy trucks, pharmaceuticals, and other goods are taking effect, adding to investor unease and reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may be forced into a rate cut later this month. Fed funds futures now price in a 96% chance of easing.

Equity futures slipped modestly, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down about 0.5%, though historical shutdowns have produced mixed stock performance. Precious metals surged, with gold hitting a fresh record above $3,875 per ounce. In Asia, trading was uneven: Japan’s Nikkei fell while Taiwan and South Korea posted gains, as Chinese markets remain closed for holidays. With U.S. economic data delayed by the shutdown, attention turns to today’s ADP employment figures and euro zone inflation, which could show a stronger-than-expected pickup, potentially limiting further ECB easing.