The daily reports for important events that affects the forex, stocks and commodities markets.

09/01/2026 Daily Reports

Markets Cautious Ahead of US Jobs Data and Tariff Ruling

Asian equities edged lower and the dollar remained firm as investors turned cautious ahead of key U.S. events, led by the December jobs report and a highly anticipated Supreme Court decision on the legality of broad U.S. tariffs. With markets already sensitive to policy uncertainty, the potential ruling is seen as a major source of volatility, as any change to tariff policy could affect government revenues, bond yields and overall risk sentiment. Geopolitical tensions, particularly linked to Venezuela, continued to support oil prices and defence-related stocks, while broader equity moves remained restrained.

 

In Asia, markets were mixed, with Japan’s Nikkei outperforming on strong corporate earnings, while regional benchmarks hovered just below recent highs. U.S. equities closed largely flat, though defence shares reached record levels, reflecting ongoing geopolitical risks. Attention is firmly on the U.S. labour market, where payroll growth is expected to remain subdued, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates on hold in the near term. With at least two rate cuts still priced in by markets this year, investors are balancing resilient growth signals against policy and legal uncertainties that could drive

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SCOTUS vs. The Tariff Regime
  • The Friday “Jolt”: The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule as early as today on whether President Trump overstepped his authority by using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to bypass Congress and impose sweeping global tariffs.
  • A $200 Billion Refund? If the Court strikes down the tariffs, it could trigger a chaotic battle for refunds. Importers have already paid an estimated $150B–$200B in duties this year; a court-ordered payback would act as a massive liquidity injection for the private sector but a fiscal nightmare for the Treasury.
  • The “Rocket Fuel” for Small Caps: Analysts suggest that “Tariff Relief” combined with a dovish Fed could act as rocket fuel for the Russell 2000. Small-cap companies that have struggled with high import costs are positioned for a significant bounce.
  • The “Plan B” Threat: Even if SCOTUS rules against the administration, experts warn the relief may be short-lived. The White House has reportedly prepared five alternative legal routes (including Section 232 and 301) to reimpose levies of up to 15% almost immediately.
  • Bond Market Volatility: A ruling against the tariffs could hurt government revenue, leading to increased Treasury issuance and pushing 10-year yields higher. This fiscal fallout remains a primary concern for bond investors.
  • Prediction Markets Sidetracked: While betting markets gave a 30% chance for the tariffs to be upheld, the “Trump adventurism” in Venezuela and Greenland has created an unpredictable legal backdrop regarding the definition of “National Emergency.”

 

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U.S. stock futures edged lower late Thursday as investors awaited a key employment report and a potential Supreme Court ruling that could affect tariffs imposed during the Trump administration. Futures tied to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 declined, while Dow Jones futures traded near flat.

On Thursday, technology stocks underperformed, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average moved closer to record highs. Markets on Friday are focused on two developments: a Supreme Court decision on the legality of Trump-era tariffs and the release of the December jobs report. Economists expect payrolls to rise by about 70,000, with the unemployment rate edging down to 4.5%. The data will be critical for the Federal Reserve ahead of its upcoming interest rate decision.