• Trump’s Fed Shortlist Narrows Down
President Trump named Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett as top candidates to replace Fed Chair Powell, with Waller and Malpass also in the mix.
• Early Exit Opens the Door
The resignation of Fed Governor Adriana Kugler might accelerate the nomination – possibly before January.
• Dollar Impact Varies by Candidate
Markets prefer Warsh (hawkish, USD-positive) over Hassett (dovish, USD-negative). Malpass and Hassett could signal more political influence over the Fed.
• Trade Talk Heats Up
Trump teased new tariffs on semiconductors and pharma next week – and suggested a China trade truce extension is “very close.”
• Market Reaction: Limited but Watchful
The dollar bounced early in the week but softened after weak ISM Services data. A dovish Fed pick could weigh further on USD.
• EUR/USD Remains Dollar-Driven
Despite weak eurozone PMIs, EUR/USD gains are still anchored on USD weakness and Fed rate cut expectations.
• Fed Speakers in Focus Today
FOMC’s Lisa Cook and Susan Collins will speak later – both dovish, both with voting power. Could a September cut be on the table?

• What’s Next?
The Fed chair pick is more than a personnel move – it’s a signal of where U.S. monetary independence is headed. If Trump pushes a loyalist into the role, the Fed’s credibility could take a hit, and the dollar might pay the price. My bias: stay cautious with long USD trades this week.