05/10/2022 Evening Reports

Expected Discount From OPEC, US Data Going Well...
  • The decision to reduce 2 million barrels per day came out of the OPEC+ meeting. These expectations were included in the bulletins and reports in the previous days, as a result of which oil prices reacted. Oil prices remained stable after the decision. The next meeting will take place in December.
  • According to the data released today, Services PMI in the Euro Area decreased from 49.8 to 48.8 in September. The indicator, which fell to the lowest level after March 2021, thus remained in the contraction zone for the last 3 months.
  • In Germany, the region’s largest economic power, it fell to its weakest region after June 2020 with 45.7. The decline in indicators, which entered the contraction zone as of July, deepened in September. In France, on the other hand, it continues to stay above the growth threshold with 52.9. The EURUSD pair is bearish today after two days of bullish rallies. The parity is regressing towards the 0.9900 band with the sales coming from the 1.00 band limit.
  • According to the data received in the USA today, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change at 15:15 (GMT +3) came in at 208,000, exceeding the expectations. The Official Services PMI at 16:45 (GMT+3) rebounded well from the previous month but still remained in negative territory at 49.3. The ISM Services PMI Index at 17:00 (GMT+3) was announced above expectations, increasing its outlook in the positive region and was announced as 56.7.
  • While the Dollar Index reacted strongly after the good ISM data, the probability of an increase of 75 basis points in November and 50 basis points in December on the FED Watch indicator became a little stronger. The US 10-year yield is again above 3.75%, while the Dollar index is at 111.60 (peak 114.70), EURUSD at 0.9845.
  • British Prime Minister Liz Truss said in a statement today that they will reduce the tax burden, that they have always been a party that advocates low taxes and that their priority is growth. Stating that they will not allow the anti-growth coalition to hinder them, Truss said that it is correct for the Bank of England to set the interest rates independently. On the other hand, UK Services PMI came in better than expected to drop to 49.2 with 50.0. However, after Prime Minister Truss’s emphatic speech on tax cuts, the GBPUSD parity deepened its intraday decline. The pair has given the direction down after a 6-day bullish rally.
  • Russia’s ambassador to the United States said the danger of a direct confrontation between Russia and the west escalated after the White House’s decision to provide additional military assistance to Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin is reportedly preparing to address the nation and announce a change in “special operations” status. Rising geopolitical tensions prompted him to seek refuge early Wednesday, and the US Dollar index managed to erase some of Tuesday’s losses.
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    Support Level:  0.9895 – 0.9820 – 0.9745 Resistance Level: 0.9952 – 1.0000 – 1.0050


    EUR/USD – Encountered with Sales from the Critical 1.00 Region…

    The EURUSD parity has reached the 1.00 limit with its reaction from 0.9550 since last week. This region was an important resistance area in terms of being both psychological and an area where the downtrend line from 1.15 is located. As of today, sales came from this region. With the ADP Non-Farm data, which came above the expectations at 15:15 (GMT +3), we see the movements in favor of the dollar again.

    The 0.9895 level is important as a support area. If this place is broken, there may be a deepening of the sales in the parity again.

    We will watch 1.00 in the reactions.

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    Support Level: 11710 – 1697 – 1680 Resistance Level: 1725 – 1745 – 1759


    XAU/USD – Dropped To 1697 Support, This Level Could Be Important…

    The ounce gold side started to decline again with the slight recovery of the dollar index today. The regression, which started at 1725, approached 1697 support today. 1697 can be seen as a region that could support the significant decline. Attention should be paid here. Above, we will watch the 1825 level.

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    Support Level:  84.11 – 81.50 – 79.22 Resistance Level: 88.00 – 90.45 – 92.92


    CRUDE – OPEC Increases Response to 50-Day Average on Production Cut…

    The OPEC+ meeting is taking place today and the first conclusion from the Joint Monitoring Committee is that the production cut will be 2 million bpd. Continuing to react from 80 levels in anticipation of the OPEC meeting in the recent days, crude oil rose to the 50-day average, which corresponds to the 88.00 region. Although this is an intermediate resistance area, 90.45 can be viewed as the main intraday resistance area.

    In possible declines, the first support is 86.11.

    Support Level: 144.10 – 142.81 – 141.81 Resistance Level:  145.00 – 146.42 – 148.35


    USD/JPY – Continuing to Stay Near 145.00…

    We continue to closely monitor the Dollar Yen side. While the pair continues to take the 145 level as resistance, it cannot pass this level. Today, with the US Dollar index reacting again, there is a direction to the 145 resistance, but we will be watching if it can break.

    Below, the first intraday support is 144.10. There is a loosening on the daily RSI side, although prices remain up and sideways. We are watching the 55 level in the RSI itself as support. Although the parity prices remain flat, if the RSI breaks its 55 level downwards, it may increase the pressure on these prices.

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