• BRICS in Washington’s Crosshairs
President Trump appears to be intensifying scrutiny of BRICS countries — especially India, Brazil, and Russia. The US is now openly questioning India’s heavy imports of Russian crude, potentially hinting at secondary sanctions.
• India Feels the Heat
With 1.7 million barrels/day of Russian oil at stake, pressure mounts on the Indian rupee. The Reserve Bank of India may be forced to defend the key 88 USD/INR level amid growing economic tension.
• Brazil Responds with Defiance
The US imposes a 50% tariff on Brazil over human rights accusations. In response, Bolsonaro has been placed under house arrest, but markets still favor Brazil’s real, attracted by nearly 15% implied yields.
• South Africa: Resilience Amid Tariffs
Despite 30% US tariffs, the rand is holding steady. Investors are encouraged by the central bank’s bold 3% inflation target, which is luring flows into local bonds.
• Switzerland Awaits Tariff Fallout
With 39% US tariffs looming, Switzerland fears economic damage. Talks of layoffs and emergency measures begin. EUR/CHF may slide to 0.9450 if no deal is struck soon.
• EUR/USD and Fed Watch
The euro consolidates around 1.1550, while US dollar movement hinges on ISM services data and Fed signals. Mary Daly hints at more than two rate cuts this year, but all eyes are on Collins and Cook tomorrow.

• What’s Next?
The coordinated pressure on multiple BRICS economies feels less like coincidence and more like a strategic recalibration of global alliances. If the US-China trade détente collapses by August 12, we might be witnessing the early signs of a full-fledged economic cold war — but for now, risk markets seem overly complacent.