With United States markets closed Friday for the observed Independence Day holiday, activity reflects Thursday’s session where the Nasdaq 100 declined 2.3 percent. The index faced a sharp semiconductor sell-off, with Micron falling 7.5 percent and other chipmakers dropping over 10 percent. Meta Platforms lost nearly 5 percent, and Tesla fell 8 percent despite beating delivery estimates. Apple remained a notable exception, gaining 4.5 percent.
- Germany’s DAX index reached a record high, closing Thursday 2.16 percent higher at 25,580.88. The Frankfurt exchange was lifted by a new government reform package and positive corporate news. Bayer led the rally, surging 8.9 percent, while Rheinmetall gained 6.8 percent. Deutsche Bank advanced over 5 percent following a collective bargaining agreement at Postbank, and Vonovia rose 6 percent after an analyst upgrade.
- Japan’s Nikkei 225 index fell 1.5 percent on Friday, dropping below the 67,800 level to extend losses for a second session. The decline was heavily driven by technology equities, tracking Wall Street’s weakness. Taiyo Yuden plunged 8.5 percent, while Murata Manufacturing, Kioxia, and Tokyo Electron also posted steep losses. Additionally, Japanese equities faced pressure from a strengthening yen amid speculation of potential government currency intervention.
- Brent crude oil futures traded near $71.80 per barrel ahead of the United States holiday. Prices remained pressured by rising global supply and easing geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf. Commercial oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have surpassed 10 million barrels per day, and Iranian exports increased sharply after the lifting of a naval blockade. Consequently, major financial institutions lowered their near-term price forecasts.

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Soft US Jobs Data Weighs on the Dollar
- June payrolls disappointed, reducing expectations for aggressive Fed tightening.
- However, the report was not weak enough to trigger a major dovish repricing.
- Markets still expect at least one Fed rate hike before year-end.
DXY Outlook
- The weaker jobs report supports a softer USD in the second half of the year.
- In the near term, the Dollar Index (DXY) may stabilize between 100.0–101.5 rather than enter a sustained downtrend.
US Holiday = Thin Liquidity
- US markets are closed for Independence Day, reducing market liquidity.
- Thin trading conditions often amplify volatility and create opportunities for central bank intervention.
High Alert for BOJ FX Intervention
- Markets believe Japanese authorities may have already intervened during Thursday’s sharp USD/JPY decline.
- Historically, Japan has often intervened during holiday periods and has spread operations over several trading sessions.
- The probability of another intervention remains elevated over the coming days.
USD/JPY Under Pressure
- Softer US data has helped the yen recover.
- However, analysts believe the Bank of Japan still needs a more hawkish policy message to generate a lasting appreciation in the yen.
- Without stronger BOJ communication, USD/JPY could rebound again after any intervention.
EUR/USD Faces Its Own Challenges
- Despite the weaker dollar, the euro failed to build meaningful upside momentum.
- Markets are increasingly questioning whether the ECB will deliver another rate hike this year.
- Lower Eurozone inflation and softer oil prices continue to reduce pressure on the ECB.


