02/11/2022 Evening Reports

Which topics will we pay attention to at the FED Meeting?
  • Today at 21:00 (GMT+3), we will learn the results of the FED meeting. FED Chairman Powell’s press release will be followed at 21:30. The Fed is expected to raise interest rates by 75 basis points. While this expectation has been bought in for a while, what we will be looking at here will be forward-looking directions, especially the December meeting. For now, the expectation for an interest rate increase of 75 basis points at this meeting, 50 basis points in December and 50 basis points at the February 2023 meeting is ahead. There may be some recovery in the risk appetite in the market if there is no written/verbal guidance that may require an upward revision. In addition, the possibility of a scenario such as the repurchase of short-term bonds to be discussed at the meeting in order to correct the mismatch in bond yields or Powell’s mention of this will be among the issues we will pay attention to.

While the US 10-year bond yield is just above 4%, Ounce Gold has rebounded slightly and is close to the 1660 level. However, the EURUSD parity continues to be priced just below 0.99.

  • ADP Non-Farm Employment Change announced in the USA was 239,000, above the previous month and expectations. However, we would like to state that the most important data will be announced on Friday, November 4 with the official Non-Farm Employment Report.
  • Japan Central Bank Governor Kuroda stated that there is no need to change the loose monetary policy and said that if the expectations of inflation to rise to 2% occur together with wage increases, then a fine adjustment can be made in the policy.
  • Following the statements that grain shipments in the Black Sea region will resume, Wheat futures prices decreased from $895 to $847.
  • October Manufacturing PMI index data announced in Germany and the Euro Area remained in the negative zone, below the expectations and the previous month. The recession signals in Europe continue with all their strength.

-Germany – Manufacturing PMI: 45.1 (Previous: 47.8)

-Eurozone – Manufacturing PMI: 46.4 (Previous: 48.4)

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    Support Level: 0.9852-0.9798-0.9735 Resistance Level: 0.99100.9998-1.0072


    EUR/USD – Withdrawn After Resistance Encountered at 0.9910 Level…

    In the Euro Area, Manufacturing PMI for October, announced today, fell to 46.4 from 48.4. On the US side, the ADP Non-Farm Amendment came in at 239 thousand in October, exceeding the expectations. Accompanied by these developments and with the effect of the resistance at 0.9910, the EURUSD parity is retreating. In the continuation of the pullback, 0.9852 and 0.9798 can be followed as support. In transactions in favor of Euro and pricing above 0.9910 level, 0.9998 and 1.0072 may form resistance.

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    Support Level: 92.78-90.53-87.90 Resistance Level: 95.81-98.49-102.89


    BRENT- 95.81 Resistance Tested After Decreasing Stocks…

    Weekly API Crude Oil Stocks, which we followed in the USA yesterday evening, decreased by 6,530 million barrels. With the effect of decreasing stocks, 95.81 resistance was tested in Brent Petrol. After the resistance encountered at this level, there were also pullbacks. In the continuation of the pullback, 92.78 and 90.53 can be viewed as support. In upward transactions, the falling price trend, which we follow in the 95.81 and daily period, can create resistance. Let’s also mention that the official Crude Oil Stocks will be announced at 17:30 (GMT+3) today.

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    Support Level:990-980.25-968 Resistance Level: 996-1008-1015.10


    GAU/TRY – Rising With The Effect Of Support From 980.25 Level…

    Gr Gold TL is rising with the effect of the support received from 980.25 after the pullbacks. In the continuation of the rise, 996 and 1008 can be viewed as resistance. In pullbacks, 990 and 980.25 can form support. Let’s also remind you that the Fed’s interest rate decision is at 21:00 (GMT+3) tonight and the volatility in pricing may increase during the decision.

    Support Level: 1.3588-1.3539-1.3470 Resistance Level: 1.3650-1.3703-1.3780


    USD/CAD Rising With Support From 1.3588 Level…

    After the resistance encountered in the upper band of the symmetrical triangle formation, which we watched in the daily period in USDCAD parity, there was a pullback up to the 1.3588 support. There were also increases with the support received from this level and the effect of ADP Non-Farm Employment, which increased more than expected in the USA. In the continuation of the rise, the upper band of the formation can create significant resistance. In which direction the formation is exited up or down, the transactions can gain speed in that direction.

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